Janice R. Andrews
The geopolitical landscape is being rocked by the strategic plan by Ukrainian forces to step up their drone attacks on Russian energy facilities. About twelve documented drone strikes have targeted Russian oil storage and refineries, up to 750 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, over the last three months. Although Russia’s ability to refine oil has been hampered by these strikes, experts believe that their relevance goes beyond the short-term effects on the oil sector.
Some analysts contend that the goal of these drone strikes might not be limited to hitting Russia’s energy reserves. Rather, they are perceived as a purposeful action by Ukraine to induce Russia to adopt a defensive stance and reposition vital air defense resources to safeguard oil infrastructure. Due to continuous battles in Ukraine, the Russian military is already under strain. This strategic move has increased pressure on them.
Russia now has to defend its oil infrastructure by deploying air defense equipment, such as truck-mounted Pantsir-S1 missiles. But this has left other areas vulnerable, especially when it comes to protecting military outposts and front-line soldiers in Ukraine. Compared to two years ago, Russia has fewer air defense systems at its disposal, making it more difficult to defend a larger variety of targets over its large territory.
Moreover, Russia is already thinking about other options, such creating mobile air defense units, in response to the Ukrainian offensive. Even though they are less advanced, these units have shown to be successful in thwarting drone assaults, and they may relieve some of the strain on more established air defense systems. The sheer size of Russia’s country, however, makes it difficult to deploy these mobile forces efficiently logistically.
Ukraine intends to take advantage of vulnerabilities in Russia’s defense policy in addition to upsetting the oil business by carrying out more drone attacks against Russian oil infrastructure. Ukraine aims to make gaps along the front line so that additional strikes can be launched by pressuring Russia to reallocate its air defense assets. Due to this dynamic, Russia faces a difficult task of balancing the defense of its military assets in Ukraine with the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Ukraine intends to take advantage of vulnerabilities in Russia’s defense policy in addition to upsetting the oil business by carrying out more drone attacks against Russian oil infrastructure. Ukraine aims to make gaps along the front line so that additional strikes can be launched by pressuring Russia to reallocate its air defense assets. Due to this dynamic, Russia faces a difficult task of balancing the defense of its military assets in Ukraine with the protection of crucial infrastructure.
