Janice R. Andrews
The future of Russia’s military presence in Syria is in question following the recent success of Islamist rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This has prompted concerns about the fate of Russia’s key military bases: the naval base in Tartus and the airbase at Khmeimim. Both facilities have been crucial to Russia’s operations in the Middle East and Africa, making them valuable assets for Moscow.
Russia Faces a Strategic Dilemma
With the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia now faces the challenge of determining what to do with its military presence in Syria. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov referred to discussions on the issue as “premature,” even though reports suggest that HTS has offered assurances regarding the safety of Russia’s bases. However, independent confirmation of these claims has not yet been provided.
Experts emphasize the importance of these bases for Russia. Tartus, a Soviet-era naval base, enables Russia to project military power into the Mediterranean, while the Khmeimim airbase, built in 2015, was essential for supporting Assad’s regime against rebels.
Military historian Colonel Markus Reisner argued that Tartus has become “more strategically important,” while the Khmeimim base, now less vital following Assad’s weakening control, has diminished in significance.
A Shift in Russia’s Approach to HTS
Despite previously labeling HTS as a “terrorist” organization, Moscow has recently softened its stance. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov now refers to the group as “insurgent forces,” signaling a shift in diplomatic rhetoric. This shift may reflect Moscow’s desire to maintain its military presence in Syria by negotiating a deal with HTS.
Defense expert Gustav Gressel noted that while there is visible activity at Khmeimim, it is not indicative of a full-scale evacuation. “Behind the scenes, Russia will likely negotiate a deal to keep the bases,” Gressel suggested.
Mark Galeotti, a political scientist, echoed this view, pointing out that Russia’s pragmatic approach could allow HTS to diversify its alliances beyond Turkey. This could make Russia an appealing partner for HTS, offering an alternative to Ankara’s influence.
Negotiations Likely to Be Complex
However, not all experts believe a quick agreement will be reached with HTS. Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East expert at RUSI, expressed doubts that HTS would quickly align with Russia, especially after Moscow granted asylum to Assad. Ozcelik predicted prolonged negotiations involving key regional players such as Iran, which will also have to reassess its interests in Syria.
The loss of these bases would not only be a military setback for Russia but also a blow to its geopolitical standing in the region. Losing Tartus and Khmeimim would limit Russia’s ability to project influence across the Mediterranean and the Middle East.
Potential Alternatives for Russian Bases
If Russia is forced to withdraw its forces from Syria, its options for relocating military bases are limited. Libya, where Russia has ties with General Khalifa Haftar, is one of the frequently mentioned alternatives. However, experts caution that setting up a new base in Libya, especially in Tobruk, would require extensive infrastructure.
Sudan is another possible destination, with Russia in long-running discussions over a naval base in the Red Sea. But, like Libya, progress on these talks has been slow, and establishing a new base would come with significant logistical challenges. Galeotti emphasized that none of these alternatives would provide the same strategic benefits as Russia’s current positions in Syria.
No Major Impact on the Ukraine Conflict
The potential withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria has prompted questions about its impact on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Analysts agree that any troops redeployed from Syria to Ukraine would not have a significant effect on the ongoing conflict.
Galeotti argued that the number of troops available for transfer would be “negligible,” while Gressel pointed out that Russia is focused entirely on its operations in Ukraine and does not have the capacity to open another front. As a result, changes in Syria are unlikely to have a major impact on the war against Ukraine.
The Future of Russian Diplomacy
The uncertainty surrounding Russia’s military presence in Syria highlights the challenges Moscow faces in adjusting to the changing geopolitical landscape. While Russia may attempt to secure its bases through pragmatic diplomacy, the outcome remains uncertain.
As regional powers and rebel groups jostle for influence, Russia’s ability to maintain its strategic assets in Syria will be a test of its diplomatic skill and long-term strategy. In the coming months, Moscow will have to adapt to new realities in Syria, which could significantly affect its position in the Middle East and beyond.
