Janice R. Andrews
As the race for president in 2024 heats up, two of the most famous political analysts in the country, Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver, have already said who they think will win. It’s interesting that they have different opinions. Nate Silver, a pollster and researcher, thinks that former President Donald Trump is more likely to win than scholar Allan Lichtman, who thinks that Vice President Kamala Harris will win.
These different predictions come from the fact that the two experts use different methods to make their predictions.
Why Allan Lichtman Thinks Harris Will Win
Allan Lichtman is a history professor at American University who is famous for being able to almost always correctly guess who will win the presidential race. In the last 10 elections, he has been right nine times. The only time he was wrong was in 2000, when George W. Bush barely beat Al Gore.
Lichtman’s method for making predictions, called the “13 Keys to the White House,” is not based on polls but on 13 statements that are either true or wrong. These comments talk about different political, economic, and social factors that, when put together, show that either the Democrats or the Republicans are likely to win.
Lichtman’s “13 Keys” are made up of groups like
- “Incumbency” means whether the current president is running for a second term.
- “Short-Term Economy” refers to the state of the economy right now, before the election.
- Scandal: Tell us if the current government has been involved in any big scandals.
- rival Charisma: How charming people think the rival is.
- “Party Mandate” means whether the party in power gained votes in the midterm elections.
Lichtman said in a recent interview that Vice President Harris has most of these “Keys,” which makes her the most likely winner in the 2024 run. Lichtman says that even though the Democratic Party is having problems, Harris has enough benefits in key areas like being in office and having successful policies to keep the White House.
Nate Silver Says Trump Will Win
Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight and famous for his data-driven predictions about elections, however, thinks something different will happen. His math shows that Donald Trump has a good chance of becoming president again.
Silver’s method for making predictions is based mostly on polling data, but it also takes into account things like the types of voters, differences between regions, and past voting trends. Silver’s method is based on in-depth, data-rich analysis, while Lichtman’s model looks at big picture political and social trends.
In Silver’s most recent model, Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College have gone from 52.4% to 58.2% in just one week. Harris’ chances, on the other hand, have gone down from 47.3% to 41.6%.
Silver’s model is interesting because it focuses on split states and how their populations are changing. In Silver’s model, faith membership, voter registration information, and forecasts of turnout are all taken into account. He agrees that national polls can be helpful, but his model stresses how important neighborhood and state polls are, especially in places that are very close in the election.
Very Different Ways, Very Different Results
Lichtman and Silver both have good track records, but the fact that they use different methods shows how hard it is to predict presidential elections. Lichtman’s model, which is based on past trends, has often played down polling data by focused on bigger political issues. Silver’s method, on the other hand, is based on facts and polls, but it also takes into account changes in politics and demographics.
As November 2024 gets closer, these two experts’ different opinions show how unclear this much-anticipated election is. We still don’t know which view, Lichtman’s broad view or Silver’s data-driven analysis, is more true, but one thing is for sure: the race is far from over.
