Janice R. Andrews
As November 2024 comes, tensions are rising in the United States, and worries about possible social unrest have reached a level that has never been seen before. The attempt on the life of former President Donald Trump on July 13, 2024, has shown how deeply divided Americans are politically. Since there is a chance of bloodshed, people are wondering if nearby countries, especially Canada, are getting ready for the worst possible outcome: an American Civil War.
A Growing Fear for Canada
The U.S. is becoming more and more divided, which has caused a lot of worry both inside the country and among its enemies. Because its border with the US is the longest and not guarded, Canada is very worried about what might happen after the U.S. election. There are big worries in the Canadian government about the possibility of a civil war in the U.S., which has led to talks about how ready the country is for such a situation.
A story from Politico says that the Canadian government, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is indeed concerned about the possibility of social unrest in the U.S. after the 2024 election. It looks like Canada has already started making plans for what to do if there is an American Civil War, according to the story.
Policy Horizons Canada: Looking at the Danger
A federal government think tank called Policy Horizons Canada has been working with the Trudeau government to look at the risks that come with the upcoming U.S. election. This think tank has talked to hundreds of government officials and experts in order to get a better idea of the chaos that might happen after November 2024. Based on the results of these polls, we can draw a serious conclusion: Canada needs to be ready in case there is a civil war in the US.
In a 37-page study called “Disruptions on the Horizon,” which came out earlier this year, Policy Horizons Canada laid out the different problems that Ottawa needs to be ready for. Among the possible outcomes talked about in the study, a U.S. civil war is one of the scariest, even though it is not thought to happen. As the study pointed out, the chances of such an event happening are low, but the effects would be “ultra-high,” so the Canadian government needs to pay close attention.
The More General Effects
The Policy Horizons Canada study looks at more threats than just the chance of a U.S. civil war. It looks at other problems that might happen in the next few years. These include the spread of biological weapons made at home, the appearance of viruses that are immune to antibiotics, which caused a lot of deaths and food shortages, and even the start of World War III. But the possibility of civil unrest in the U.S. is still a major worry, since it could lead to mass violence and have a direct effect on Canada.
A researcher at the Brookings Institution named John McArthur told Politico about the worries of the Canadian government. He said that the study shows how worried Prime Minister Trudeau is about the way things are going in the US. McArthur also talked about how Trump’s presidency hurt ties between the U.S. and Canada and made Canadians more worried about the safety of their southern neighbor.
Getting Ready for the Worst
Because of the chance of social unrest in the U.S., Canada has taken extra safety steps. One important area of attention is hacking. The Policy Horizons Canada study stresses how important it is for Canada to quickly create new technologies to protect its important assets from possible cyberattacks. If there is a civil war or a lot of trouble in the U.S., Canadian emergency services might not be able to handle all the calls, and the country’s infrastructure might be in danger.
The story doesn’t go into specifics about how a U.S. civil war might happen, but Alexander Burns of Politico has an idea. His ideas are that if there was a civil war, it might be like the one in Quebec in the 1960s. Canada was hit by nearly a decade of violence, including bombings, kidnappings, and thefts. These crimes were committed by radicals who were upset about changes to the government system. Burns says that a similar situation could happen in the U.S. because so many people there have guns.
The Unknown Future
As the U.S. presidential election in November 2024 draws near, there is a good chance that there will be social unrest. It is possible that a large part of the American population will be unhappy with the result of the election, which will make things even worse. A recent study by Rasmussen Reports found that 41% of Americans are worried that there could be social unrest in the country. Canadians feel the same way; they are afraid that the unrest in the U.S. could have effects in their own country.
To sum up, the chances of an American Civil War happening are still low, but the Canadian government is still thinking about it. Together with Policy Horizons Canada, the Trudeau government is getting ready for the worst-case situation. The possibility of civil unrest in the U.S. is a stark warning of the deep divides in the country and the problems that could arise for its closest allies. The situation is getting worse, and people in both countries are worried about what the future holds.
