Janice R. Andrews
The 2024 presidential fight between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is still very much a tie, despite many observers expecting it to be an easy victory. For those who have supported President Biden, it becomes clear that an experienced lawmaker with a strong policy record ought to prevail against a former president who has been impeached twice and charged four times. On the other hand, Trump’s backers feel that his strong immigration policies and economic prosperity prior to the outbreak make him the obvious option. In spite of these strong sentiments, the most recent Yahoo News/YouGov survey reflects similar findings from earlier months, with both candidates deadlocked at 45% among registered voters.
Dominant Factor: Polarization
The extreme polarization of American politics is a major contributing factor to the impasse. The majority of people have made their political allegiance clear to either the Democratic or Republican parties, and negative partisanship—a term used to describe animosity for the opposition—has reached previously unheard-of heights. It is difficult for any candidate to have a clear advantage because of this deep-rooted split, which makes few people willing to change their allegiance.
Biden’s Challenges as the Current Governor
The public’s perception of President Biden shows his shortcomings as an incumbent. There is a 19-point gap in the percentage of Americans who approve of his performance compared to those who disapprove, with 57% saying they do not. Comparing this negative rating to other contemporary incumbents at comparable stages of their presidencies is noteworthy. At this point, even the unsuccessful candidates for reelection—Trump, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush—had greater popularity ratings.
Biden behind Trump considerably on important subjects like immigration, inflation, and the economy. For instance, Trump leads by ten points (45% to 35%) on inflation and by twelve points (48 to 36%) on the economy. Additionally, Biden lags behind on topics like university protests, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and criminality. Regarding abortion, Biden has the lone edge over Trump: 41% of Americans support his position, compared to 36% who support Trump’s.
Furthermore, a higher percentage of Americans think that living was better under Trump’s administration. Just 34% of respondents believe that things are better now under Biden, compared to around 43% who believe that things were better back then. When it comes to individual situations, this feeling is shared: 44% of respondents believe their lives were better five years ago, whereas just 24% believe they are better currently.
Trump’s Limited Appeal and Legal Problems
Trump’s serious shortcomings prevent him from taking advantage of Biden’s vulnerabilities. While Biden has a dismal favorability rating of 39%, Trump has a similarly low rating of 41%, indicating that a significant portion of the American public has negative opinions of both candidates. Trump’s reputation is severely damaged by his continuing legal issues. 51% of Americans support Trump receiving a jail sentence if proven guilty, and the majority of Americans (52%) think he fabricated corporate documents pertaining to payments of hush money.
Only 39% of Americans would still vote for Trump if he were found guilty of a severe crime, but Biden’s support would slightly increase to 46%, potentially giving him a 7-point advantage. Trump has never received more than 47% of the vote in a presidential election, demonstrating his inability to rise above his base. The stats right now indicate that he will have an even harder difficulty getting more support this time.
Persuasive Communication: An Important Elements
In order to gauge the impact of the candidates’ speeches, a survey asked respondents to reply to comments that had been paraphrased from Biden and Trump without knowing who said them. The findings suggest that the public is not responding favorably to Biden’s economic accomplishments. As an illustration, just 29% of respondents concur that “Biden inherited an economy on the brink, but it’s now the envy of the world,” while 53% disagree, despite notable economic achievements including low unemployment and decreased inflation. Comparably, just 35% of respondents concur that “under Biden, wages have increased and inflation has dropped from 9% to 3%,” while 46% disapprove.
Just around two thirds of Biden’s followers agree with his remarks, which is a lackluster showing even within his base. On the other hand, a more cohesive resistance is evident from the overwhelming disagreement of Trump’s followers with Biden’s assertions.
Nevertheless, Trump’s remarks are likewise not very appealing. Remarks like “under Biden, we have a three-year inflation rate of almost 50%” and “the U.S. is a Third World country at our borders and elections” received just 45% agreement, which is indicative of his 45% support in head-to-head polling versus Biden. These statements have also been disproven by fact-checkers, which diminishes their potency even further.
The deadlock in the rematch between Biden and Trump is evidence of the extreme political differences and serious shortcomings in both candidates. The campaign remains closely contested due to Biden’s difficulty in properly communicating his accomplishments and Trump’s incapacity to appeal to voters outside of his base. It will be interesting to watch if any candidate can end the impasse and gain a clear lead as the 2024 election draws near.
