“What Harris or Trump Victory Could Mean for Balkans”

As the U.S. presidential election draws near, the nations of the Western Balkans—especially Serbia and Kosovo—are keeping a close watch. The election outcome could have significant implications for this part of southeastern Europe. On September 23, Donald Trump Jr. met with Serbian business leaders in Belgrade to explore potential investment opportunities, continuing the Trump family’s long-standing connections with Serbia, which date back to 2013. During that period, Ivica Dacic, then the Prime Minister of Serbia, mentioned Trump’s interest in a real estate project involving the damaged former headquarters of the Yugoslav People’s Army, although the deal never materialized.

Fast forward to May this year, Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, along with former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, secured a billion-dollar agreement, leasing the same complex for 99 years. Grenell, a potential candidate for Secretary of State if Trump wins in November, played a central role in Trump’s prior dealings in the Balkans. He was unpopular in Berlin, often dubbed an “undiplomat” by critics, yet has gained favor with the Serbian leadership.

Grenell’s involvement in Balkan diplomacy extends to 2020, when, as Trump’s envoy to the region, he influenced Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s removal from office, allegedly to pave the way for a contentious land swap deal between Serbia and Kosovo. This deal could have redrawn borders along ethnic lines, potentially causing a ripple effect in the region’s multiethnic states. Leaders like Bosnian-Serb figure Milorad Dodik warned that such a move could lead to Republika Srpska’s integration with Serbia, possibly reigniting conflict in the Balkans. However, the plan fell apart when Kosovo President Hashim Thaci faced charges at the Kosovo Tribunal in The Hague.

The Trump administration’s pro-Serbian stance has led to close relations between Trump’s inner circle and Serbian officials. Grenell, in particular, remains highly regarded in Serbia, with its President Aleksandar Vucic awarding him one of the country’s highest honors for his “balanced approach” to Kosovo.

In contrast, Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president, has taken a less defined position on the Balkans. Her multiethnic background and well-documented support for Ukraine suggest she might be less sympathetic toward Serbian or other ethnonationalist causes. It’s plausible that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has cautioned Harris about Moscow’s influence in the Balkans, particularly through pro-Moscow Serbian nationalists, and this could lead her to take a tougher stance on Serbia.

Experts like Edward Joseph from Johns Hopkins University have criticized the Biden administration’s soft approach toward Serbia, urging a firmer stance. Former U.S. diplomat Shaun Byrnes agrees, stating that Serbia’s hostile stance toward Kosovo warrants a stronger U.S. response. Meanwhile, veteran diplomat Daniel Serwer has labeled Biden’s Balkans policy as “fantasy diplomacy,” pointing to Serbia’s deepening ties with Russia as evidence that Vucic cannot be relied on as a stabilizing force in the region.

If Trump is reelected, the Western Balkans, particularly Serbia and Kosovo, could see a shift in U.S. foreign policy, with economic deals at the forefront of the Trump administration’s agenda. Trump’s alignment with Serbia’s close ties to Russia may appeal to his interests, but this raises concerns for Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Montenegro. These pro-American, pro-Western countries, especially Kosovo and Bosnia with their Muslim-majority populations, may find their security at risk if Trump chooses to prioritize economic interests over longstanding alliances.

The fear of a potential second Trump administration stems from his history of abandoning allies when convenient. For example, in December 2018, Trump announced a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, leaving the Kurds, who had fought against the Islamic State, vulnerable—a decision that led to the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis.

Before Grenell’s 2020 Serbia-Kosovo land swap plan collapsed, Trump had also threatened Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti with withdrawing U.S. troops from the region. These forces are seen as crucial for Kosovo’s security, as Serbia continues to reject Kosovo’s independence. While NATO’s KFOR mission plays a significant role, U.S. troops are seen as indispensable in maintaining stability in Kosovo.

Under the Biden administration, some steps have been taken to bolster Kosovo’s defense, such as the delivery of 250 Javelin anti-tank missiles—essential weapons also sent to Ukraine—and the supply of Turkish Bayraktar drones. Without these defense systems, Kosovo’s ability to protect its independence from a militarily superior Serbia, which possesses about 250 tanks, would be severely limited.