Janice R. Andrews
The longstanding U.S.-Philippines alliance, a pillar of American influence in the Indo-Pacific, could face significant challenges if Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2025. Known for his unpredictable foreign policy and transactional approach to diplomacy, Trump’s second term could have a profound impact on the relationship between the two nations, raising questions about the future of this key partnership.
A Historic Partnership Facing New Tests
The U.S.-Philippines alliance, anchored by the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), has been vital for regional stability and as a counterbalance to China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea. The MDT commits both countries to mutual defense in case of an armed attack, reinforcing the Philippines as a strategic ally for the U.S. in its broader Indo-Pacific strategy.
However, this partnership has not been without its complications. Under Trump’s first term, the alliance was tested by his unconventional approach to foreign relations and the Philippines’ shift towards China under then-President Rodrigo Duterte. With the prospect of Trump’s re-election, concerns are rising about how his “America First” stance might further strain ties between Washington and Manila.
The Duterte Era and Its Impact
Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency (2016–2022) marked a significant shift in the Philippines’ foreign policy. Duterte’s public hostility towards the U.S. and his efforts to strengthen ties with China led to a cooling in relations. At one point, Duterte even threatened to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), a key pact that allows U.S. military personnel to operate in the Philippines.
Although the alliance survived these tensions, largely due to shared strategic interests, Duterte’s tilt towards China set a troubling precedent in Manila’s foreign policy. Now, under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the Philippines is attempting to recalibrate its relations with both the U.S. and China, but questions remain about how sustainable this balancing act will be, especially in the face of another potential Trump presidency.
Trump’s Foreign Policy: Unpredictability and Transactionalism
Trump’s first term was marked by a foreign policy focused on cost-sharing and transactional diplomacy. He frequently criticized U.S. allies for not contributing enough to their own defense and suggested that the U.S. should not bear the full burden of protecting its allies. This approach often alienated traditional partners and left many wondering about the future of American alliances.
If Trump returns to power, there are concerns that he might once again demand more from the Philippines in terms of financial or military commitments, potentially straining the alliance further. Moreover, his tendency to overlook human rights violations and be more accommodating toward authoritarian regimes could embolden China’s actions, complicating Manila’s strategic choices in the region.
The South China Sea: A Point of Tension
The South China Sea remains one of the most critical areas of concern for the U.S.-Philippines alliance. China’s assertive actions in the disputed waters, including the militarization of artificial islands and aggressive patrols, pose a direct threat to Philippine sovereignty. The U.S. has long pledged to support the Philippines in defending its territorial claims in the region, but under Trump, the U.S.’s commitment to confronting China in the South China Sea was at times unclear.
While Trump’s administration did conduct several Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to challenge China’s claims, critics argue that Trump lacked a coherent strategy for long-term engagement with China. If this trend continues under Trump 2.0, the Philippines could feel increasingly isolated and may look to alternative alliances for security.
Economic Ties and Dependence on U.S. Support
The U.S. is a major trade partner and source of foreign investment for the Philippines. The economic relationship between the two countries has been integral to the strength of their alliance, especially with millions of Filipinos in the U.S. sending remittances back home. However, Trump’s protectionist policies, particularly his withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his stance on trade tariffs, raised questions about the U.S.’s commitment to regional economic cooperation.
A second Trump term could bring back these protectionist tendencies, which might undermine the economic ties that support the broader alliance. The Philippines could seek alternative partners to boost trade, and such a pivot could weaken the overall relationship between Washington and Manila.
Military Support and Security Assistance
The U.S. has been a key provider of military aid to the Philippines, helping to modernize its armed forces and bolster its counterterrorism efforts. This assistance is particularly crucial given the Philippines’ internal security challenges and external threats from China. However, during his first term, Trump signaled a willingness to cut foreign aid to some countries, which raised concerns about the continuity of military support for the Philippines.
A reduction in U.S. military assistance under Trump 2.0 could have serious implications for the Philippines, which is already facing an intensifying security environment in the South China Sea and the fight against terrorism at home.
Shifting Regional Dynamics
Should the U.S.-Philippines alliance weaken under Trump, Manila may look to diversify its partnerships. The Philippines has already been strengthening defense ties with other regional powers, including Japan, Australia, and South Korea. Additionally, the ASEAN bloc has been working together to counterbalance China’s influence, which could gain further momentum if the U.S. is perceived as an unreliable partner.
China would likely seize any opportunity to deepen its engagement with the Philippines, offering economic incentives and furthering its strategic interests in the region. While Marcos Jr. has maintained a cautious approach toward Beijing, a weaker U.S. alliance could push the Philippines to gravitate more toward China.
Public and International Reactions
The potential shift in the U.S.-Philippines relationship has sparked mixed reactions both domestically and internationally. In the Philippines, public opinion is divided, with some advocating for closer ties with China for economic gains, while others emphasize the need to maintain strong ties with the U.S. for security reasons.
In the U.S., a second Trump term could face opposition from Congress and military leaders, who have traditionally supported the Indo-Pacific strategy. Bipartisan efforts to confront China may act as a counterbalance to Trump’s more isolationist policies, ensuring that the U.S. remains engaged in the region.
The Future of the Alliance
The future of the U.S.-Philippines alliance is at a crossroads. While the partnership has endured many challenges, Trump’s potential return to power raises significant questions about its direction. For the alliance to survive and thrive, both countries will need to demonstrate flexibility, reaffirm shared commitments, and ensure that the alliance serves their mutual interests in an increasingly complex regional landscape.
Strengthening Diplomatic and Military Ties
To safeguard the alliance, the U.S. and the Philippines must continue to strengthen their military cooperation, reaffirm commitments to the Mutual Defense Treaty, and deepen economic and people-to-people connections. Both nations must work together to address regional security challenges, including counterterrorism efforts, freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and the broader balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
Long-Term Strategic Planning
Ultimately, the U.S.-Philippines alliance faces a critical juncture. The need for long-term strategic planning that transcends political changes in either country will be essential. Whether under Trump 2.0 or a new administration, both nations must prioritize maintaining a strong, resilient partnership in the face of growing regional and global uncertainties.
Conclusion
As the possibility of a second Trump presidency becomes more likely, the future of the U.S.-Philippines alliance is uncertain. While the alliance has withstood numerous challenges, Trump’s foreign policy could test its resilience. Moving forward, both countries will need to reassess their commitments, deepen their cooperation, and ensure that their shared interests are protected in an increasingly competitive Indo-Pacific.
