U.S. Economy in 2024: Growth Amid Challenges

Economic Growth Outlook

• Q3 2024 projections: 2.2% annualized GDP growth (some economists)
• Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool: 2.9% growth
• Goldman Sachs forecast: 3% growth

Recent Economic Indicators

1. S&P Global’s flash U.S. composite PMI:
   • September: 54.4 (down from 54.6 in August)
   • Indicates overall economic expansion (PMI > 50)
2. Retail sales: Better than expected in August
3. Federal Reserve’s stance:
   • Jerome Powell: “The U.S. economy is in good shape”
   • Focus on balancing growth with inflation control

Emerging Challenges

Manufacturing Sector

• Activity at 15-month low
• September index: 47 (down from 47.9 in August)
• Indicates contraction (index < 50)

Inflation Concerns

• Prices charged by businesses rising at fastest rate in 6 months
• Chris Williamson (S&P Global): “A reacceleration of inflation is signaled”

Services Sector

• Slight dip: 55.4 in September (down from 55.7 in August)
• Remains relatively strong despite decline

Political Uncertainty

• 2024 Presidential Election impacting business sentiment
• Future output index at lowest level since October 2022
• Potential to stall economic progress

Expert Insights

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

• “Sustained robust expansion of output”
• Warns of inflation reacceleration
• Notes political uncertainty’s impact on business outlook

Conclusion

While the U.S. economy shows signs of healthy growth, it faces significant challenges:

1. Manufacturing sector struggles
2. Inflationary pressures
3. Political uncertainty

These factors create a complex economic landscape for policymakers, businesses, and consumers as we approach the end of 2024.