Janice R. Andrews
Despite California’s solid Democratic leanings, Donald Trump is making waves by campaigning in the state shortly before the 2024 election. This unexpected move, while puzzling to some, reveals a nuanced strategy extending beyond the typical focus on swing states.
The California Conundrum
California has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, with the last Republican victory dating back to 1988. In 2020, Trump secured only 34% of the vote, losing to Joe Biden by a significant margin. However, this still represented over six million votes – a record for a Republican in the state. Trump’s support is particularly strong in rural areas, though registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2:1 statewide.
Strategic Objectives
Trump’s California campaign serves several purposes:
- Volunteer Mobilization: California houses a large pool of politically active supporters. By rallying this base, Trump aims to encourage involvement in phone banks and ground campaigns for crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona.
- Fundraising: Despite the slim chances of winning the state, California remains a vital source of campaign funds. High-priced events, such as the one in Coachella offering photo opportunities with Trump for $25,000, contribute significantly to campaign coffers.
- Media Exposure: Campaigning in California, particularly in the Los Angeles market, guarantees substantial media coverage. This keeps Trump in the national spotlight and maintains enthusiasm among his core supporters.
- Down-ballot Impact: Trump’s presence could energize Republican voters for congressional races, potentially influencing the control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
- Challenging Governor Newsom: The visit provides an opportunity to directly confront California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, a prominent Trump critic. Highlighting California’s challenges serves as a rallying point for Republicans nationwide.
- Popular Vote Considerations: Some suggest Trump aims to increase his popular vote share, even in states he’s unlikely to win, to secure a stronger mandate if he wins the presidency.
Broader Implications
While California’s 54 electoral votes remain a long shot for Trump, his campaign there demonstrates a multi-faceted approach. By leveraging the state’s resources, media influence, and political dynamics, Trump’s strategy extends far beyond the immediate goal of winning California. Whether this approach will yield results on Election Day remains to be seen, but it underscores the campaign’s determination to explore every avenue for potential advantage in the 2024 race.
