Trump vs Harris: Wisconsin Polls Neck-and-Neck

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election in Wisconsin is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris locked in a virtual tie. This key battleground state, which played a crucial role in President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory with a slim 0.7% margin, once again emerges as a potential kingmaker.

Recent Polling Data

1. Napolitan News (Thursday release):
   • Harris: 50%
   • Trump: 49%
   • Sample: 788 likely voters
   • Margin of error: 3.5%
2. Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker (Sept 19-22):
   • Both candidates tied at 49%
   • Sample: 1,071 likely voters
3. Emerson College and The Hill (Sept 15-18):
   • Trump: 49%
   • Harris: 48%
4. MaristPoll (Sept 15-18):
   • Harris: 50%
   • Trump: 49%

Driving Factors

American Thinker’s Andrea Widburg identified four main issues influencing voters:

1. Economy (favoring Trump)
2. Immigration (favoring Trump)
3. Energy policy (slight advantage to Harris)
4. Abortion (slight advantage to Harris)

Aggregate Polling and Forecasts

• RealClearPolling average: Harris leads by 0.7 percentage points
• New York Times polling tracker: Harris leads by 2 points
• Nate Silver’s forecast:
  • Harris: 61% chance of winning
  • Trump: 39% chance
• FiveThirtyEight model:
  • Harris: 62% chance
  • Trump: 38% chance

As Election Day approaches, both candidates are intensifying their efforts in this critical swing state. The razor-thin margins in Wisconsin underscore its potential to be a decisive factor in determining the next U.S. President.