Janice R. Andrews
In advance of Tropical Storm Debby, which is predicted to bring severe weather and high winds to Florida and the southeast this weekend, a state of emergency has been proclaimed in some areas of the state and a tropical storm warning has been issued.
As of Friday, Tropical Storm Debby—which the National Hurricane Center has classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four—was intensifying over portions of Cuba and the southern Bahamas. By Saturday morning, the system—whose winds can reach 30 mph—is expected to transform into a tropical depression. By Saturday night, after it passes over the oceans between Florida and Cuba, it is predicted to intensify into Tropical Storm Debby.
Storm Alerts and Arrangements
East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach are under a tropical storm warning. A tropical storm watch has also been issued for a portion of the Florida Keys and the coast of Central Florida, which includes Tampa Bay, Fort Myers, and Cape Coral. Within the next 48 hours, residents in these locations are advised to get ready for tropical storm conditions.
The storm’s route and intensity are yet unknown, and the amount of time it spends over the eastern Gulf of Mexico’s record-warm waters will determine how strong it gets. The areas affected by landfall and the intensity of the storm’s effects might shift dramatically even with minor modifications to the storm’s path, the National Hurricane Center has warned.
Possible Effects
The storm is predicted to intensify as it moves parallel to Florida’s Gulf Coast before turning east and reaching landfall. Along the coast from South Florida north to Tampa Bay, there is a chance for storm surges up to three feet high, especially if the storm passes over the region slowly.
The storm’s most notable effects are expected to be floods and torrential rain. There is a greater chance of major flooding if the system slows down. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has responded by proclamating a state of emergency in 54 of the state’s 67 counties in order to gather federal, state, and local resources in advance of the storm.
Community Readiness
Residents in numerous neighborhoods in the Orlando and Tampa metro regions might start receiving sandbags on Friday. On Thursday, the counties of Escambia, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa in the state’s panhandle began delivering sandbags. As the storm gathers just off the coast, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a level 2 of 4 danger of flooding rains for a large portion of South Florida on Saturday.
Within the worst storms in the outer rain bands of the system on Saturday, the WPC has warned of “very intense” rainfall rates of 2.5 to 3 inches per hour. Flash floods might result with such strong rainfall rates, especially in marshy areas that are usually better equipped to handle surplus water. If these powerful storms get it to the Miami area—which had up to 20 inches of rain in early July, resulting in severe flash floods and several water rescues—the risk to life and property would be greatly increased.
Prolonged Prediction
By Sunday, a large portion of Florida should be at risk of flooding rains, as well as Georgia and the Carolinas. The storm’s specific path will determine the precise time and position of the region that could see torrential downpours outside of Florida, although heavy rain could start as early as Sunday afternoon. In Florida especially, this danger level can rise as the system’s trajectory becomes more apparent.
It is predicted that the Southeast will continue to have intense rains far into the next week. The amount of rain that falls might significantly rise if the system slows and stalls over a certain area, like the Big Bend region of Florida. Much of Florida, as well as the coastlines of Georgia and the Carolinas, are expected to have 4 to 8 inches of rain through Monday, according to current predictions.
Tropical Storms and Climate Change
The National Hurricane Center’s research indicates that throughout the past ten years, freshwater flooding brought on by rainfall has emerged as the most deadly feature of tropical systems. Fossil fuel pollution is intensifying climate change, which is a hazard. Research shows that tropical systems are slowing down, which raises the possibility of higher overall rainfall amounts over impacted areas.
Furthermore, storm intensity is increasing due to ocean warming since it is absorbing more moisture. Climate warming has been found to increase hourly rainfall rates in tropical storms by 5 to 10% and in hurricanes by 8 to 11%, according to a 2022 study published in the journal Nature Communications.
Last-Minute Planning
It’s critical that Floridians pay attention to local officials’ warnings and guidance as they prepare for Tropical Storm Debby and keep updated through dependable weather updates. In order to guarantee safety and lessen the storm’s impact on communities, preparation and attentiveness are essential.
