Janice R. Andrews
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said late on Sunday that Potential Tropical Cyclone Six had developed in the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico, amid an already busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Because of this development, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of Mexico, as the system is predicted to strengthen and could affect areas along the Gulf Coast in the coming days.
Present Position and Power
The system had persistent winds of 50 mph and was situated about 320 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, according to the most recent alert. It is traveling at a leisurely 5 mph toward the northwest. For the next day or two, forecasters say it will keep moving slowly in the direction of the northwest Gulf.
According to the NHC’s 11 p.m. ET report, “On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday.” Although the precise course is yet unknown, Mexican and American officials are taking preventative measures.
Mexico Has Issued a Tropical Storm Watch
The Mexican government has issued a tropical storm alert for regions stretching northward from Barra del Tordo to the mouth of the Rio Grande in reaction to the system’s anticipated course. In the meanwhile, a tropical storm watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for the Texas coast, extending from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, around 60 miles up the coast.
As the storm is predicted to gather and develop, further warnings may be issued on Monday, especially for areas of southern Texas and Louisiana.
Prognosis: Developing Into a Hurricane?
By Monday, the NHC predicts that the system will intensify into a tropical storm. By the time the system approaches the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast, it may have strengthened even more to hurricane intensity thanks to the Gulf of Mexico’s abnormally warm waters. In the event that this happens, the storm will be dubbed “Francine,” going by the alphabetical list of storm names this season.
The average temperature of the waters in the southern Gulf right now is in the low 90s F, which is around 5 degrees warmer than usual for this time of year. The system has enough of energy to strengthen thanks to these high temperatures, especially as it gets more structured.
Explain What a Possible Tropical Cyclone Is.
The National Hurricane Center uses the phrase “Potential Tropical Cyclone” to describe a disturbance that hasn’t completely formed into a tropical depression or storm but is still predicted to have a substantial impact within 48 hours, including high winds and heavy rain. Because of this classification, authorities are able to start making preparations and send alarms before the system completely formed.
Impact on Communities Along the Gulf Coast
For now, meteorologists are warning those living along the Gulf Coasts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mexico to keep a careful eye on storm developments. Coastal communities should start to feel the effects of strong gusts, potentially deadly storm surges, and heavy rains by Tuesday.
Rainfall on the northwest Gulf Coast could range from 4 to 8 inches, with isolated spots perhaps receiving up to 12 inches. Concerns for flash floods are raised by this significant rainfall, especially in low-lying areas and metropolitan centers along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.
Particularly along the Mexican coastline, coastal flooding might result from the storm surge and high tides. Residents in these locations should be ready for choppy waves and possible interruptions to transportation and port facilities along the coast.
Likenesses to Past Storms
Only a few weeks have passed after Hurricane Beryl severely damaged Texas in July, when Tropical Cyclone Six is predicted. A Category 1 hurricane named Beryl made landfall in the area southwest of Houston, resulting in extensive flooding, power disruptions, and wind damage.
For the first time in sixteen years, Texas will see two hurricanes in a single season if the present storm strengthens into a hurricane and makes landfall there. When Hurricane Ike devastated Galveston and Houston and Hurricane Dolly struck Corpus Christi in 2008, this was the last time it happened.
The devastating Category 4 Hurricane Ida in 2021 was the most recent named hurricane to hit land in Louisiana. Coastal Louisiana’s low elevation and the ongoing effects of climate change make it very vulnerable to flooding and storm surges.
Activity and Outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season
With September 10 marking the statistical peak of activity, the Atlantic hurricane season is almost over as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six forms. Colorado State University researchers estimate that 68% of all Atlantic tropical activity usually happens after September 1, suggesting that the busiest half of the season is still to come.
Although there was a brief break in tropical activity after Hurricane Ernesto in mid-August, the Gulf and Atlantic’s warm waters have created the conditions for further storms to form in the upcoming weeks. Three of the five named storms that have developed thus far in the 2024 season have the potential to become hurricanes.
Additional Systems Under Monitoring
The NHC is monitoring two other systems in the Atlantic in addition to Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. First, there is an extended region of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic that is showing indications of organization and is expected to become a tropical depression during the next week with a 70% probability.
Several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, another system is causing erratic thunderstorms and showers. Later in the week, as it interacts with a tropical wave off the coast of Africa, this system has a 50% probability of developing.
Being Ready for Any Effects
Residents along the Gulf Coast are advised to keep alert and make preparations for potential effects due to the unpredictable nature of tropical systems. The storm’s progress will be continuously monitored by authorities, who will provide updates whenever new details become available.
Those who might be affected by the storm should make sure their houses and places of work are safe in the interim, restock on emergency supplies, and go over their evacuation preparations in case the storm gets worse.
