Janice R. Andrews
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping a close eye on three tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico as the 2024 hurricane season goes on. Even though the season has been pretty calm so far, these systems could have big effects on the weather as they grow over the next few days. Here is a list of what is happening in the tropics right now and what will happen soon.
Three possible tropical systems are coming together.
The new tropical weather prediction from the NHC points out three interesting areas:
The northwest Gulf of Mexico has a disturbance just off the coast of upper Texas.
There is a tropical wave heading west toward the islands near the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean Sea.
Third, the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean is a system that forms off the coast of western Africa.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that these systems have less than a 45% chance of becoming tropical storms or hurricanes over the next seven days. None of them have been called yet.
There is a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico.
What’s interesting is the disturbance near the coast of Texas. This system is likely to stay close to the coast for the next few days. It could bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. The NHC says this system has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane in the next 48 hours and a 10% chance over the next seven days, even though it is close to land.
But even if nothing official happens, the storm could still cause flash floods along parts of the coasts of Louisiana and Texas, especially if it stays over the water and stays strong. People who live in these places should be on the lookout for heavy rain and floods, especially in low-lying areas.
A tropical wave is coming close to the Lesser Antilles.
Another interesting spot is a tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea, about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This storm is going west and should get to the chain of islands by Monday. As the storm gets closer, the NHC says that some parts of the Lesser Antilles could get strong winds and heavy rain.
Looking ahead, as the tropical wave moves into the central and western Caribbean Sea, conditions are expected to get better for growth. There is a 10% chance that it will form in the next 48 hours. That chance will rise to 40% over the next seven days, which means there is a moderate chance that it will get stronger and turn into a tropical depression.
Name of the system in the eastern tropical Atlantic
The third storm to worry about is over western Africa, and by Monday it will have moved off the coast into the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. This disturbance has almost no chance of happening in the next 48 hours, so it’s not likely to happen right away. But as it goes westward or west-northwestward, the climate might become better for slow growth. The NHC thinks that there is a 20% chance of growth in the next seven days.
More tropical waves are being watched
The NHC is also keeping an eye on three tropical waves in different parts of the Atlantic, in addition to the three main areas of concern:
- In the eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave is moving westward.
- In the central Atlantic, there is another wave going westward, along with some scattered mild convection.
- Western Caribbean and Pacific: A wave that goes from southeast Mexico to the eastern Pacific, passing through El Salvador and bringing scattered rains and thunderstorms with it.
How busy is the hurricane season in 2024?
Even though the season started out less active than expected, there has been a lot of intense action this storm season. Hurricane Ernesto hit Bermuda in August and made the surf and rip currents along the East Coast of the United States dangerous. In July, storm Beryl was the first Category 5 storm ever recorded. It did a lot of damage and killed over 20 people on several Caribbean islands and in parts of the United States.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the oceans and atmosphere are ready for a very busy storm season, which could be one of the busiest ever. 17 to 24 named storms are expected to happen in 2024, and 8 to 13 of them could turn into hurricanes. Four to seven of these could grow into strong storms with winds that last for more than 111 miles per hour.
Every year, there are about 14 named storms in the Atlantic, with 7 of them becoming hurricanes and 3 of them becoming big hurricanes. The official hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, which is a lot of time for storms to grow and do more damage.
Keep yourself informed and ready.
People who live in hurricane-prone places need to keep up with the latest news from the National Hurricane Center and their local weather officials as the season goes on. Being ready is very important, especially now that things are heating up in the tropics. Keep an eye on the weather report, make sure you have enough backup supplies, and go over your plans for leaving the house.
For now, the three systems being watched have a low to middling chance of developing. However, it is important to remember that they could change the weather in many places. They will be moving and getting stronger over the next few days, so it is important to keep a close eye on them.
