Surge in Long-Term Sickness Forces Record Numbers Out of Work

A troubling trend has been identified in a new analysis by the Resolution Foundation: the number of people leaving the workforce as a result of long-term illness has reached a record high not seen since the 1990s. The number increased dramatically from 2.1 million in July 2019 to a peak of 2.8 million in October 2023, according to the organization, making it the “longest sustained rise” since records were kept.

The younger and older populations account for nine tenths of the total increase in economic inactivity, with both groups being disproportionately impacted. Louise Murphy, a senior economist at the Foundation, cautions against this tendency due to its possible effects on people’s livelihoods and career paths.

According to the Foundation, the UK economy is the only one among the G7 to have not yet reached employment levels that existed prior to the pandemic. Even though the number of inactive people decreased slightly to 2.7 million in December 2023, the disturbing tendency is still present.

The increase in chronic illness began in the summer of 2019 and lasted for an astounding 54 months, predating the pandemic. Crucially, as the Foundation notes, requests for disability benefits have increased dramatically, rising by 68% between 2020 and 2024, according to Department of Work and Pension (DWP) figures.

To address these issues, the government has proposed policies to increase the labor force, such as legislation to make it easier for 200,000 more people to enter the labor force. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has announced proposals to restructure the contentious Work Capability Assessment in addition to tougher fit-to-work exams and assistance for job seekers.

But the Foundation cautions that if the country’s health isn’t enhanced and economic inactivity isn’t decreased, worries about the burden on healthcare and welfare systems will still exist. Long NHS waiting lists have a negative effect on people’s ability to enter the workforce, according to Shazia Ejaz of the Recruitment and Employment Federation, who also supports better infrastructure in the areas of social care, childcare, and transportation.

Policymakers are under increasing pressure to implement practical solutions to lessen the negative impacts of long-term illness on workforce participation and societal well-being as the country struggles with this unique crisis.