Janice R. Andrews
According to a report released Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) is keeping an eye on three tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean. In spite of this, forecasters have not yet said when the unusually quiet period in storm activity will stop.
Since Hurricane Ernesto formed on August 12, the Atlantic has been remarkably calm in recent weeks, with no named storms. Given how busy late summer usually is, this time of quiet is very strange. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University, says that since 1966, there has only been one other time when there were so few storms between August 13 and September 3. In 1968, there were only eight named storms in the Atlantic during the whole season.
“This quiet period is especially noteworthy because it falls at the same time of the year when the Atlantic usually has the most storms,” Klotzbach wrote in an online update to the forecast on September 3.
Hurricane forecasters keep an eye on three tropical waves
It’s been rare for named storms to stop growing, but analysts are still keeping a close eye on three tropical disturbances that could grow into bigger systems in the future.
Wave 1: Coming up on the Northwestern Caribbean
The first tropical wave is heading west at about 20 mph and is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms near the south-east coast of Cuba, Jamaica, and parts of the central Caribbean Sea. “Some development” of this system is possible later this week as it slows over the north-west Caribbean Sea or early next week as it moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, according to the NHC.
As of the most recent report, the NHC says that this wave has a 30% chance of happening in the next seven days.
Wave 2: To the east of the Lesser Antilles
About 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is where the second wave is. As this storm moves west-northwest over the next couple of days, progress will likely be slow. However, by the end of the week, the weather will no longer be favourable for further progress.
The NHC says that this wave has a 10% chance of developing within the next seven days. This means that there is a very small chance that it will become a major storm.
Wave 3 takes place in the Eastern Atlantic.
There is a third wave in the far eastern Atlantic, and it is slowly moving northwestward. As it moves over the eastern tropical Atlantic, some growth is likely. The NHC says that this storm could bring heavy rain to the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday.
The storm centre says that this wave has a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane in the next seven days. This means that it is something to keep an eye on, but it is not an immediate threat.
What’s going on with the Atlantic hurricanes?
As the busiest months of the Atlantic hurricane season begin, many people are curious about why the basin has been so quiet, even though there is a lot of warm water in the area, which usually helps storms form. AccuWeather says that the current lack of action is due to a number of things, such as a lot of dry air, Saharan dust, and wind patterns that aren’t working right.
Expert Alex DaSilva from AccuWeather on hurricanes also pointed out a big area of cold water off the western coast of Africa that has been stopping clouds from growing into tropical storms or hurricanes.
It is strange that there have been more storms in the Pacific this year than in the Atlantic, said DaSilva.
New forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season
Because the season got off to a slow start, some forecasting groups, like AccuWeather, have changed what they think will happen in 2024. AccuWeather first said that this year could have up to 25 named storms, but they have since changed their prediction to 16 to 20 storms. Even with this lower prediction, there will still be more than the average of 14 named storms per season in the past.
Klotzbach’s team at Colorado State University thinks that storm activity will stay below average for the next two weeks because of long-term weather trends that have made it hard for storms to form.
Klotzbach said, “However, the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t end in the middle of September.” “The Atlantic is still very warm, and as the season goes on, the tropical Pacific is probably going to move towards La Niña.” La Niña is a weather trend that is known to make Atlantic hurricanes more likely, so there may be more storms later in the season.
Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 30.
From June 1 to November 30, the Atlantic storm season is in full swing. Even though the current quiet period is rare, it is important to stay alert because things could change quickly, especially if La Niña gets stronger.
For now, meteorologists are still keeping an eye on the three tropical waves, but it’s still not likely that a hurricane will form right away. As the season goes on, check the National Hurricane Centre for the most up-to-date information.
