Janice R. Andrews
An warning updated on Thursday says that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping an eye on five tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean right now. Even though there are a lot of tropical disturbances, there aren’t any named storms right now. This is an interesting time for both meteorologists and hurricane predictors.
Experts don’t understand why storm activity has been so low over the past few weeks when there have been so many tropical disturbances. In this case, it shows how complicated weather trends are and how random storms can be.
There is a strange quiet in the Atlantic.
Phil Klotzbach, a storm forecaster at Colorado State University, said he was surprised by what was happening. “In my recent memory, it’s the first time we’ve had no active named storms but five systems being monitored by NHC at the same time that were all listed as low probability,” said Klotzbach.
In this time of year, when there are usually more Atlantic hurricanes, this break in storm action is very strange. Klatzbach said that Ernesto, the last named storm, happened on August 12. There haven’t been any more storms since then, making this one of the calmest times since 1968. Not a single named storm has hit the Atlantic since 1966. The last time was from August 13 to September 3. In 1968, there were only eight named storms during the whole hurricane season.
Klotzbach said in an online prediction update on September 3 that this period of extreme quiet is even more unusual because it falls at the same time of year that the Atlantic normally gets very busy.
Not a Storm, Five Disturbances
At the moment, the five tropical storms that the NHC is keeping an eye on are tropical waves. These are long areas of low pressure that move across the tropics. Even though these disturbances could grow into stronger weather systems like hurricanes, storms, or tropical depressions, they are not organized yet.
In general, these tropical waves bring good weather to the west of their systems. However, the east often gets cloudy and rainy. The number of these disturbances is growing, but the weather, especially vertical wind shear, is making it hard for them to form into more stable systems. Storms often break up before they can get going because of wind shear.
“The Atlantic hurricane season is almost over, so there are places where storms are trying to form,” Klotzbach said. “Right now, vertical wind shear is pretty high across most of the basin.”
The NHC keeps an eye on five tropical waves in the Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on five tropical storms in different parts of the Atlantic. Each one has a different chance of becoming a hurricane:
- First Disturbance: This system is causing showers and thunderstorms all over the northwest Gulf of Mexico right now, especially near the beaches of Texas and Louisiana. As a frontal boundary gets closer, the NHC said that upper-level winds will become “less conducive for development” by Friday or Saturday. Heavy rain is expected along the northern Gulf Coast over the next couple of days, but it’s not likely that a storm will form. There is a flood watch in place for southeast Louisiana and the Gulf Coast of Mississippi. It could rain up to five inches.
- The NHC calls this storm a “non-tropical area of low pressure,” and it’s a few hundred miles east of North Carolina. Even though it’s not causing many thunderstorms right now, as it moves north-northeastward over the next few days, it might start to look more tropical or subtropical. But once it hits cooler water by late Saturday, there will be less chance of it growing any further. The NHC says there is a 30% chance that this system will form in the next seven days.
- The third disturbance is a tropical wave that is causing rains and thunderstorms in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Over the next few days, as it moves northwest or north, there may be some slow growth. The NHC thinks there is a 20% chance that this storm will grow in the next week.
- Fourth Disturbance: This storm is heading quickly west over the western Caribbean Sea at about 20 mph. Over a large area, it is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Once it hits the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, it may get stronger. Based on the NHC, there is a 20% chance that this event will happen in the next seven days.
- Fifth Disturbance: This tropical wave is a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, but strong winds are stopping it from moving forward right now. Though, early next week, the weather might get better for growth. The NHC says there is a 10% chance that it will happen in the next seven days.
Why Aren’t There Any Hurricanes?
Even though the water in the Atlantic is warm, storms have not been able to form because of a number of reasons. The dry air and dust from the Saharan Desert, along with the unpredictable wind patterns, have made it impossible for storms to form. Alex DaSilva, a hurricane expert for AccuWeather, also said that a big area of cold water off the western coast of Africa is messing up normal storm trends, which makes it even less likely that a storm will form.
This season, meteorologists have noticed that there have been more storms in the Pacific Ocean than in the Atlantic. This is not what usually happens. Several forecasting groups, including AccuWeather, have changed their expectations for the Atlantic storm season of 2024 because of these reasons. AccuWeather first said there could be up to 25 storms, but now they only think there will be 16 to 20. That’s still more than the average of 14 storms, though.
The Atlantic storm season lasts until November 30, but experts are still being careful. Klotzbach’s team thinks that there will be less storm activity than usual in the next few weeks because of the way the weather is on a larger scale. But because the Atlantic area is so uncertain, there is still a chance of more storms.
Because the NHC is closely watching five storms, people who live near the coast should stay alert because things can change quickly.
