Janice R. Andrews
Introduction
In today’s geopolitical landscape, Southeast Asia finds itself at a critical juncture as U.S.-China tensions reshape regional dynamics. With ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, Asia faces its own challenges with increased military activity and potential confrontation risks. The region’s strategic position offers unique opportunities to enhance security while maintaining independence, particularly as external powers increase their presence in Asian waters.
U.S.-China Strategic Competition
The strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing continues to intensify across Southeast Asia. American policymakers, united in viewing China as a primary strategic competitor, maintain their focus on Asia through strengthened military partnerships and alliance networks. This manifests in expanded naval exercises with regional allies including the Philippines, Australia, and Japan. Simultaneously, China demonstrates its military capabilities through missile testing and joint operations with Russian forces.
Chinese Military Activities
A significant demonstration of China’s military advancement occurred on September 25 with the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean, marking their first such test in four decades. China’s military exercises, particularly those conducted alongside Russia in the South China Sea, appear designed to counter U.S.-led activities. A notable example occurred from September 30 to October 1, when China conducted drills concurrent with multinational exercises involving the U.S. and its regional partners.
American Military Presence
American engagement in Southeast Asia remains substantial, with over 1,100 military exercises conducted with regional partners between 2003 and 2022. This sustained presence has deepened relationships with Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines. The recent deployment of the Typhon missile system to the Philippines represents a significant strategic development, placing Chinese territory within range despite Beijing’s protests.
External Powers’ Involvement
The Indo-Pacific region has attracted increased attention from European naval powers. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have expanded their regional presence through naval deployments and joint exercises. Germany’s recent frigate passage through the Taiwan Strait and the UK’s planned 2025 carrier strike group deployment with Norwegian support exemplify this trend. These engagements aim primarily to support maritime freedom rather than contain China.
Strategic Considerations for Southeast Asia
Regional nations can leverage relationships with external powers to their advantage. Engaging with European naval forces supports open maritime routes while building military interoperability. Joint exercises demonstrate regional unity and commitment to international maritime law, while avoiding over-reliance on either the U.S. or China.
Implementation Challenges
Practical obstacles include the intermittent nature of European deployments and resource constraints facing Southeast Asian navies. While large-scale exercises strain regional military budgets, they serve valuable roles in establishing precedents and maintaining engagement. The Philippines’ ongoing maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea highlight the importance of unified approaches to navigation rights.
Japan and Australia’s Regional Influence
Middle powers like Japan and Australia have emerged as key security partners. Japan’s annual Izumo-class carrier deployments since 2017 have strengthened ties with Southeast Asian nations and Australia. Australia’s Indo-Pacific Endeavour program further reinforces regional security cooperation. Incorporating these powers into broader multinational exercises strengthens the network supporting regional stability.
Looking Forward
As U.S.-China competition intensifies, Southeast Asian nations must actively shape their security environment. Engaging diverse international partners through joint exercises enhances maritime capabilities while reinforcing freedom of navigation principles. While great power rivalry persists, Southeast Asia can maintain its autonomy and promote regional stability through strategic engagement with multiple powers, cementing its position as a crucial player in Indo-Pacific security.
