Janice R. Andrews
Winter Storm Set to Quench SoCal Wildfires with Flood Risks
Southern California is preparing for a major weather system this weekend that is expected to deliver much-needed rain and snow to the region. After enduring over seven months without significant rainfall—a historic dry spell for parts of Southern California—the area may finally see an end to its deadly wildfires as a powerful winter storm approaches. However, this welcome relief is accompanied by the threat of flash floods and mudslides in regions recently devastated by fires.
Flood Watches Implemented in Fire-Affected Zones
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued 24-hour flood watch warnings starting at 4 p.m. Sunday for various areas in Los Angeles County that were severely impacted by wildfires earlier this month. Key locations under these alerts include the Palisades Fire, which has burned 23,448 acres and is 79% contained, and the Eaton Fire, which has consumed 14,021 acres and is 95% contained. Additionally, the Bridge Fire in the Angeles National Forest and the Hughes Fire northwest of Los Angeles, burning 10,396 acres and 79% contained as of Friday, are also under flood watch.
Risks of Flash Floods and Mudslides
The main concern with the incoming storm is the likelihood of flash floods and debris flows. The Oxnard NWS office has indicated that while the chances of significant flooding and debris flows are relatively low, estimated between 10% and 20%, the conditions are ripe enough to warrant caution. “While damaging debris flows are not the most likely outcome, there is still a lot of uncertainty with this storm,” the Oxnard office stated on Friday. “The threat is high enough to prepare for the worst-case scenario.”
Local authorities across Los Angeles County, including cities like Los Angeles, Pasadena, and Baldwin Park, are distributing sandbags to residents to help mitigate the potential impact of mudflows. These preventative measures are crucial in areas where the dry, burned terrain has left the soil susceptible to erosion and rapid runoff.
Anticipated Rain and Snowfall This Weekend
Rain is expected to begin in Los Angeles County on Saturday afternoon, intensifying on Sunday with forecasts predicting moderate to heavy rainfall, along with small hail or graupel. Urban areas in Los Angeles could receive up to a quarter-inch of rain, while San Diego may see up to an inch, making Sunday the storm’s peak day for precipitation.
In addition to rain, the storm is set to bring substantial snowfall to Southern California’s mountainous regions. Winter storm warnings have been issued for the San Gabriel and San Bernardino ranges, effective from 4 p.m. Sunday for the next 48 hours. Snow accumulation could reach up to 18 inches above the 6,000-foot elevation and as much as 6 inches above 4,000 feet from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Even urban mountain areas in Los Angeles and San Diego counties could experience snow accumulations of 14 inches and 8 inches, respectively.
Transportation and Ongoing Fire Impact
The crucial 5 Freeway, a major route stretching between the U.S. borders with Mexico and Canada, might receive a light dusting of snow, potentially 1 to 2 inches in the Lebec area along the Grapevine. This could result in travel disruptions as road conditions become treacherous. Meanwhile, the Border 2 fire in San Diego County, which has burned 6,273 acres and is 10% contained as of Friday evening, remains a concern amidst the storm.
San Diego Faces Record Driest Winter
This storm arrives at a critical time for Southern California, where San Diego has experienced its driest winter on record since weather data recording began in 1860. As of January 10, only 0.14 inches of rain had fallen since the start of the water year on October 1, heightening the region’s vulnerability to both wildfires and subsequent flood risks.
Significant Temperature Drops Expected
In addition to the precipitation, temperatures in Southern California are forecasted to drop by 10 to 15 degrees over the weekend. This substantial temperature decrease will further influence weather patterns and the overall impact of the storm on the region.
Storm Preparedness Advised
Residents in affected areas are urged to take necessary precautions, such as securing sandbags and staying updated with the latest weather forecasts. The combination of rain, snow, and recent burn scars creates a complex and potentially hazardous environment. By preparing in advance, communities can better handle the challenges posed by this winter storm.
As Southern California confronts the dual threats of extinguishing wildfires and facing a winter storm, the upcoming days will be pivotal in assessing the region’s resilience against natural disasters. Stay informed through local weather services and follow the guidance of authorities to ensure safety during this volatile period.
