Janice R. Andrews
In a shocking admission, Russian arsonists were “very likely” behind a recent attempt to set fire to a bus garage in Prague, according to Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala. The fact that this event is a part of a string of similar attacks occurring around Europe has governments and security experts extremely concerned.
An Escalation Pattern
The attack in Prague is not a unique incident. Arsonists attacked the Museum of Occupation in Riga in February, set fire to a warehouse in London in March, and set fire to a retail mall in Warsaw in May of this year. A failed bombing incident involving a suspected bomb maker is being investigated by French authorities, while German police prevented planned explosives and arson assaults in April.
The Rise of Hybrid Warfare
Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg stressed the rising threat posed by Russian hybrid warfare. “We face a threat that is not an all-out military assault: these hybrid threats,” Stoltenberg said, pointing out the range of strategies Russia uses, including sabotage and cyberattacks.
Defense studies specialist Rod Thornton of King’s College London saw a marked increase in these missions. “Over the past six months, there has undoubtedly been a rise in these specific activities. The Russians are getting more serious about it, Thornton noted.
Strategic Sabotage by Russia
Although Russia has not acknowledged being behind these assaults, the Kremlin’s actions point to a planned plan. President Vladimir Putin sees Kyiv as a proxy of the West, and the current crisis in Ukraine as a part of a larger campaign against NATO. There has been a rise in Russian saber-rattling in response to any increase in Western support for Ukraine, be it military assistance or sanctions.
According to Thornton, Russia is choosing sabotage over open conflict with NATO. “It’s long been a part of Russian military doctrine to try and avoid trying to face NATO on a battlefield, because they know they would lose to NATO forces,” he stated. Russia avoids using NATO’s Article 5, which requires collective defense, by limiting their strikes below the point at which an armed war would break out.
Undermining Western Cohesion
Russia’s objective, according to Nicole Wolkov of the Institute for the Study of War, is to sabotage NATO unity and impede Western military assistance to Ukraine. “These hybrid operations are part of Russia’s war effort to weaken Western resolve to support Ukraine and undermine unity within the West,” Wolkov stated.
Years of Get-Ready
Russia has been developing its hybrid warfare capabilities for many years. In 2020, the GRU elevated the renowned spy leader Andrei Averyanov, indicating a greater emphasis on such activities. Averyanov has been connected to the 2014 blast at the Czech weapons dump as well as the 2018 poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal.
Recent attacks, such as the abortive fire attempt in Prague, point to a trend of using proxies and amateurs who frequently have ties to organized crime. “Most of these people are just proxies that are paid by the GRU; they aren’t trained to do these types of operations,” observed Oleksandr Danylyuk of the Royal United Services Institute.
The Front of Disinformation and Cyberspace
Beyond direct assaults, Russia also uses cyberattacks and misinformation efforts as part of its hybrid warfare. Cyberattacks have been common in European nations; major hacks have been recorded in Finland, Estonia, and France. These cyber operations frequently seek to evaluate security flaws and be ready for bigger, future assaults.
Alongside these attacks are campaigns of disinformation aimed at shifting responsibility and undermining confidence in governments. “The goal is to break the will of the citizens and to break the support for Ukraine,” security expert Olga Lautman clarified.
A Request for Participation
NATO has issued repeated alerts over Russia’s non-traditional strategies. But out of concern for a potential escalation, European leaders have refrained from placing direct blame on the Kremlin. Experts contend that Russia has grown more confident as a result of this hesitancy.
Olga Lautman emphasized that Russia continues to represent a threat to the international community. “Russia is at war with us and will continue escalating unless we start acting,” she stated.
It is more important than ever for the West to respond in a concerted and determined manner to this intricate and varied danger. Russia’s hybrid warfare has far-reaching consequences that go well beyond Ukraine, seriously undermining international stability and security.
