Janice R. Andrews
The ongoing war in Ukraine has dramatically weakened Russia’s ability to support Syrian President Bashar Assad. Once a powerful ally that helped Assad regain control of key territories, Russia now finds itself struggling to maintain its influence in Syria.
Key Challenges
- Military Redeployment: Russia has been forced to relocate critical military assets from Syria to support its operations in Ukraine. Fighter jets have been moved, and the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system was repositioned to Crimea.
- Reduced Ground Presence: The Wagner Group, previously crucial in Syrian ground operations, is now primarily engaged in Ukraine. This has left a significant gap in Russia’s military capabilities in Syria.
- Strategic Losses: The recent fall of Aleppo to pro-Turkish Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) demonstrates Russia’s diminished power in the region. This is a stark contrast to Russia’s decisive role in capturing Aleppo in 2016.
Diplomatic Balancing Act
Despite these challenges, Russia cannot simply abandon Syria. The country remains strategically important, offering:
- A naval base in Tartus
- The Hmeimim air base
- A foothold in the Mediterranean
- A symbol of Russia’s global power
Instead of committing more troops, Russia is now relying heavily on diplomatic negotiations with regional powers like Turkey and Iran. However, these negotiations are increasingly complex and resource-intensive.
Expert Perspectives
Experts like Ruslan Suleimanov argue that Russia is “no longer in the position to support the Assad regime as it did ten years ago.” The Ukraine war has fundamentally altered Russia’s ability to project power in Syria.
Future Outlook
While Russia remains committed to Assad, its influence has significantly diminished. Airstrikes and diplomatic efforts may slow the advances of opposing forces, but they are unlikely to restore Russia’s previous dominant position in Syria.
The article underscores a critical challenge for Russia: maintaining its global ambitions while managing two complex and resource-intensive conflicts simultaneously.
