Russia Faces Unbearable Losses in Ukraine War

Russia’s military dominance in the ongoing Ukraine conflict is under threat as it braces for “unbearable losses in the medium and long term,” warns the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The American think tank predicts significant material, human, and economic challenges for Moscow over the next 12 to 18 months, potentially shifting the balance of power.

Since the war began in February 2022, Russia has suffered staggering losses, including 11,908 armoured vehicles and 3,773 tanks, according to Oryx, a platform tracking visual evidence of military losses. The Ukrainian general staff reports even higher figures, claiming 3,689 tanks, 8,956 armoured vehicles, and 13,050 artillery systems destroyed or damaged in 2024 alone.

The ISW highlights that Russia’s defence industry cannot replace lost equipment at the current rate of attrition. With troops and resources stretched thin, the Kremlin’s ability to sustain its war effort is under severe pressure. By 2026, analysts predict Moscow could face unsustainable losses, particularly in armoured vehicles and tanks, further complicating its military strategy.

As the conflict drags on, Russia’s weakening position could mark a turning point in the war, with long-term implications for its military and economic stability. The ISW’s findings underscore the growing challenges for Moscow as it struggles to maintain its aggressive campaign in Ukraine.