Janice R. Andrews
Scientists and meteorologists are both interested in Hurricane Francine because of how quickly it got stronger. It is now weakening after causing damage in Louisiana. Francine quickly grew into a Category 2 hurricane, even though it was supposed to hit land as a Category 1 storm. Scientists say this is happening more often as world temperatures rise.
The Effects of Francine on Louisiana
Hurricane Francine hit Terrebonne Parish in southern Louisiana on Wednesday with winds that never stopped at about 100 mph (160 km/h). A lot of people lost power because of the storm’s heavy rain and flash flooding, which left hundreds of thousands of people in the dark. The storm was the worst in New Orleans, which got a month’s worth of rain in just one day.
Meteorologists were shocked by how quickly Francine went from being a tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane. Many weather experts thought Francine would be a Category 1 storm, but her quick intensification—a rise in wind speed of 35 mph in 24 hours—caught many by surprise. Heather Zons, a senior forecast at The Weather Channel, wrote on her blog soon after the storm hit land, “Francine went up 35 mph in 24 hours, which is the exact threshold for rapid intensification.”
Changes in the climate and rapid intensification
Rapidly getting stronger storms is not a new phenomenon, but it is happening more often because of rising temperatures around the world. Scientists think this scary trend is related to the climate crisis. For example, study shows that storms are getting stronger at a rate that is nearly 30% higher now than it was before the 1990s. The burning of fossil fuels is causing more greenhouse gases to build up in the atmosphere, which is causing this change.
A study released last year showed that there is a link between global warming and storms getting stronger. Since the 1970s, there have been twice as many hurricanes in the North Atlantic that get stronger and become Category 4 or 5 storms, with winds of more than 131 mph. Phil Klotzbach, a professor at Colorado State University who studies hurricanes, says, “If you look back in time, storms intensified at a slower rate than they do now.”
Warmer oceans are making hurricanes stronger
Especially the Gulf of Mexico, the seas are becoming very important in making storms stronger. Breaking records for sea temperatures in the Gulf feed storms like jet fuel, making hurricanes that might have been mild into powerful forces. This extra heat is a direct effect of greenhouse gases keeping heat in the atmosphere, which makes the oceans more powerful.
Hurricanes like Francine are getting stronger very quickly, which is making things harder for people living along the coast. Even though tools for predicting and being ready for emergencies have gotten better, these last-minute speedups often leave people unprepared for how strong a storm will be.
Here are some things that make forecasters and coastal communities work harder:
Even though organizations like the U.S. National Hurricane Center use complex forecasting models, it is still hard to correctly guess when a hurricane’s strength will change quickly. A hurricane expert at the University of South Florida named Jennifer Collins said, “A lot of people aren’t ready because these storms go from a Category 1 to a major hurricane so quickly.”
Collins said that people often put off important plans when they think a tropical storm is all that will happen. “When people see it as a tropical storm the day before, they think they have plenty of time to get ready, but that’s not real now,” she said.
Hurricane Francine’s quick growth is a stark warning that storms are changing faster and becoming more dangerous as the world gets warmer. As this trend continues to change how hurricanes are understood and dealt with, coastal towns and emergency managers must stay alert.
