Janice R. Andrews
As the 2024 election season heats up, new polls show that the presidential race has changed dramatically after a string of big political events. The scene has changed since President Joe Biden stepped down, the Democratic convention happened, and former President Donald Trump was backed by independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Because of these changes, the race is now much closer, with Vice President Kamala Harris having a small edge in both national and key state polls. But her leads are still very small, which makes this one of the most closely watched races in recent memory.
National polls show that the race has changed and is very close.
Several national polls taken right before Labor Day weekend show that the race has changed. A new study from the Wall Street Journal says that among registered voters, Vice President Harris is just ahead of former President Trump by a narrow margin, 48% to 47%. This is a big change from a study that was done right after Biden dropped out of the race and showed Trump ahead by two points. For the same reason, a Quinnipiac University poll of potential voters gives Harris a 1-point edge over Trump, with 49% to 48%. This is Quinnipiac’s first poll of probable voters. However, Trump was ahead of both Biden and Harris in earlier polls. Another factor is a USA Today/Suffolk poll that puts Harris 5 points ahead of Trump among potential voters in a field with more than one candidate. However, this lead is still within the range of error.
Based on these numbers, it looks like the race has changed a lot since Biden dropped out and the Democratic conference. However, the narrow gaps mean that the race is still very close and no candidate has a clear lead.
States in battle: Harris gains ground
Harris has also made progress in the key swing states, though her leads are usually very small and could be wrong. New reports from Bloomberg News and Morning Consult show that Harris and Trump are tied in North Carolina and Arizona. Harris is ahead in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, but only by a small amount. In Wisconsin, he is ahead by a larger amount. Still, the polls don’t show the same thing in all key states. In Michigan, an EPIC-MRA poll shows that Trump only leads Harris by one point. This is different from June, when Trump led Biden by four points.
These polls from key states show that even though Harris has made progress, the race is still very close and could go either way. The tightness of these results shows how important each state is and how the election outcome could depend on how many people vote and how their feelings change at the last minute.
Changes in the Sun Belt
An important change in the voting scene can be seen in the Sun Belt states. Before Biden dropped out, it looked like the Democrats would not be able to win places like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. These states are now important, though, since Harris is now running the ticket. Several polls show that Harris is doing better in these states than Biden was. In some cases, she is even ahead of Biden. This change could be very important in the election because these states have a lot of votes and have become more competitive over the last few years.
Does this look like Harris’s Peak?
The time of these polls brings up an important question: is Harris’s lead at its strongest now, or could it stay the same or even grow as Election Day approaches? As of now, the polls were taken almost six weeks after Biden’s resignation, which could be called Harris’s “political honeymoon.” Her campaign has been helped by more Democratic energy, but it’s still too early to tell if this will continue. In the past, bumps after a convention have faded, and sudden events can quickly change how voters feel.
Trump’s Stable Support
On the other hand, former President Trump seems to have a strong base of support, with polls constantly showing him at 47%. This amount of support is about the same as his share of the general vote in 2020 and a little higher than his share in 2016. But it also means that Trump may have a limit on how many people will back him, which could make it harder for him to win over people who aren’t sure yet or who are moving toward a third-party candidate.
The Vote of Third Parties Is Going Down
The number of third-party votes is another important thing to think about in 2024. Six percent of the votes went to third-party candidates in the 2016 election. This helped Trump win even though he didn’t get a majority of the vote. In 2020, however, the number of votes cast for a third party dropped to just 2%, which was not enough to change the result in Trump’s favor. Recent polls show that third-party candidates got between 2% and 4% of the vote, which means that third-party candidates aren’t very strong in this race. Like in 2016, this could make it harder for Trump to repeat his winning approach. It also puts more pressure on both big candidates to win over as many voters who are still not sure who they want to vote for.
With less than 10 weeks to go, the race for president in 2024 looks like it will be one of the closest in recent memory. Polls show that Harris has made ground since Biden quit and the Democratic conference, but her leads are still small and could be wrong. Trump’s stable poll numbers show that he still has a strong base of supporters, but he too has trouble getting more votes than that core group. As the campaign comes to a close, every vote will matter, and the result is still unknown. In the next few weeks, both voters and political experts will be paying close attention for any signs of a change.
