Janice R. Andrews
Donald Trump’s favorability has seen a significant jump following his victory in the 2024 presidential election, with 54% of Americans expressing approval in the first post-election Emerson College poll. This marks a six-point rise in his approval rating, positioning him 18 points ahead of President Joe Biden, whose approval stands lower.
The poll also offers a glimpse into who voters from both major parties are hoping will run for president in 2028, highlighting the early frontrunners and potential challengers in the next election cycle.
Trump’s Post-Election Boost
Trump’s popularity has surged across nearly all age groups, with the exception of voters aged 70 and older. Forty-six percent of voters admitted they were surprised by the outcome of the 2024 election, but Trump’s favorability has remained strong since his win.
Trump is already making moves, announcing plans to impose tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada in response to the ongoing migrant and fentanyl crises.
Republican Preferences for 2028
The 2028 Republican race remains wide open, with 51% of GOP voters unsure about who they want to see succeed Trump. However, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance is emerging as a leading candidate, with 30% of Republicans expressing interest in his potential run.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis tied with “someone else” at 5%, while biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Ambassador Nikki Haley received 3% and 2%, respectively. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently switched from the Democratic Party, also garnered 2% support.
Vance’s strong performance suggests he is gaining traction as Trump’s VP, positioning him as a possible contender for the Republican nomination in 2028.
Democratic Contenders for 2028
On the Democratic side, Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 37% of Democratic voters expressing interest in her running for president again. However, 35% of Democrats remain undecided, indicating a lack of clarity on the party’s future leadership.
California Governor Gavin Newsom secured third place with 7%, followed by Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 4%. Governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania each earned 3%.
Michelle Obama and Senator Bernie Sanders both received 2% support, signaling ongoing interest in their potential bids despite different political paths. Sanders would be 87 years old in 2028, raising questions about his viability.
Kamala Harris’s running mate in 2024, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, earned just 1% support, indicating the challenge of building a strong national presence in such a competitive field.
A Potential VP Faceoff in 2028
If current preferences hold, the 2028 election could feature a faceoff between Vice President Harris and Vice President-elect Vance, setting up a high-stakes battle between two of the most prominent figures in U.S. politics.
Looking Ahead to 2028
This poll highlights the uncertainty within both parties about their next leaders. For Republicans, Vance’s rising popularity suggests he may be positioned to make a serious run for the presidency after Trump’s second term.
For Democrats, Harris’s strong backing, though significant, faces challenges due to the high number of undecided voters, signaling that the party may need to consider new options as it moves past the 2024 election.
As Trump prepares to take office, the stage is already being set for the 2028 race, with both parties looking to solidify their contenders for the next presidential election.
