Janice R. Andrews
Recent polls indicate a surprising shift in the 2024 presidential race, with traditionally Republican-leaning states Texas and Florida becoming more competitive. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is gaining ground on former President Donald Trump in these crucial battlegrounds.
Emerson College polls show Trump holding a narrow lead in both states. In Florida, Trump leads Harris by 50% to 45%, while in Texas, the margin is even slimmer at 50% to 46%. This is notable given Trump’s previous victories in these states.
Florida has seen a significant increase in registered Republican voters, with the GOP now outnumbering Democrats by about 1 million. However, a large bloc of independent voters could still sway the outcome.
Nationally, Harris has made progress with key demographics, particularly Hispanic and Black voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows her leading Trump by 13 points among Hispanic voters, outperforming Biden’s earlier numbers. She’s also gaining more support from Black Americans than Biden did.
Despite these gains, Harris struggles with white voters, especially those without college degrees – a core part of Trump’s base. This demographic still favors Trump by a significant margin.
The Trump campaign remains focused on maintaining support in the Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which were crucial to his 2016 victory. Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, is expected to campaign heavily in these areas.
As the election approaches, both candidates are likely to intensify their efforts in these newly competitive states, as their outcomes could be decisive in determining the next president.
