Janice R. Andrews
Following her abrupt resignation on August 5 and flight to New Delhi, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year leadership has left Bangladesh’s political landscape severely unsettled. The situation has sparked a great deal of conjecture over Bangladesh’s relationship with China, its most important South Asian strategic ally. The fate of important trade deals and projects supported by China that have been crucial to Hasina’s administration are key concerns that surface when the temporary government assumes power.
An Abrupt Change in Authority
In celebration of the strength of the bilateral ties between Dhaka and Beijing, Sheikh Hasina met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on July 10. With significant infrastructure projects and business agreements in place, Bangladesh is a key participant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as the summit highlighted. Less than a month later, though, Hasina’s political fortunes turned south as anti-government demonstrations and acts of violence increased across. Hasina abruptly left the country due to demonstrations fuelled by dissatisfaction over employment quota distributions and other concerns, leaving a tumultuous political climate in her wake.
China’s Position on Diplomacy
China’s Foreign Ministry has voiced worry over the situation and called for calm to be restored in Bangladesh in reaction to the unrest. “As a friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic cooperative partner of Bangladesh, China sincerely hopes that social stability will be restored soon,” said the ministry. Nevertheless, experts speculate that Hasina’s exit may not have an instantaneous effect on China’s long-term investments in Bangladesh. Political scientist Ali Riaz of Illinois State University pointed out that Beijing’s emphasis on larger geopolitical and economic goals rather than specific leaders means that China’s investments are probably going to stay steady.
Affecting Trade and Large-Scale Projects
Bangladesh and China have a significant trading connection; in 2023, bilateral trade is expected to reach 168.4 billion yuan, or US$23.6 billion. China benefits greatly from the trade imbalance, which strains Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves and has an effect on the daily economics of Bangladeshis. The task of correcting this imbalance and guaranteeing the continuation of important initiatives falls on the interim government.
After joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2016, Bangladesh rose to prominence under Hasina. Due to this involvement, major Chinese investments were made in energy, transportation, and road infrastructure projects. Among the notable projects are the Karnaphuli Tunnel, a significant infrastructure development financed by Chinese funds, and the Padma Bridge, which was the subject of accusations of corruption. Many of these projects, according to critics, were stained by corruption, with claims of inflated expenditures and bribes connected to Hasina’s government.
Problems with Corruption and Governance
In Bangladesh, corruption has always been a problem, and accusations of financial mismanagement and poor project management frequently tarnish big initiatives. The difficulties encountered are best shown by the World Bank’s 2012 decision to stop funding the Padma Bridge on allegations of corruption. In a similar vein, the Karnaphuli Tunnel has faced criticism for both its high cost and the possibility of corruption during construction, despite its strategic significance.
Following Hasina’s exit, the interim administration will have to examine these initiatives closely and deal with corruption in order to restore public confidence and guarantee the efficient utilisation of foreign investments. Experts predict that China would likely remain involved and supportive of Bangladesh because to its strategic interests, even though some projects may need to be reassessed.
China’s Future Relations and Strategic Interests
China’s backing of Hasina was more motivated by geopolitical considerations than by personal inclination. Beijing’s diplomacy, regardless of particular governments, is centred on preserving stability and growing regional influence. China’s top priorities are stability and business, as demonstrator Rayhan Islam noted, therefore it is probable that China would continue to help Bangladesh in spite of the political unrest.
Although there are worries about China’s backing of the overthrown government, Rayhan continued, China would continue to interact with Bangladesh because of the larger geopolitical environment. “It’s not just about individual leaders; it’s about the bigger picture of geopolitics,” he stated.
The State of the Economy and Human Rights Issues
Concerns over Bangladesh’s economic prospects have been raised by the nation’s political unrest. The protracted situation has raised concerns for Bangladesh’s economy, according to S&P Global Ratings, however the exact impact would depend on how soon peace is restored. In addition to overseeing relations with foreign partners, the new temporary administration will have to deal with economic difficulties.
Protesters and human rights campaigners are demanding serious changes and accountability. Human rights violations, like as enforced disappearances and extrajudicial murders, were allegedly committed during the Hasina period. It is the interim government’s responsibility to deal with these problems and make sure the victims receive justice.
Many see Muhammad Yunus, the pioneer of microfinance and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, as a possible stabilising influence. During the transitional phase, his role in directing Bangladesh towards a just and transparent democratic system would be vital. The nation’s rehabilitation will, however, be greatly influenced by the interim leadership’s capacity to organise free and fair elections and to make amends for historical wrongs.
Results
The political turmoil in Bangladesh has prompted serious concerns about the future of China-Bangladesh ties, especially with regard to trade and infrastructure initiatives. Due to its strategic interests, China is anticipated to help Bangladesh even though the new interim administration would have challenges in navigating the complicated legacy of Hasina’s reign, combating corruption, and ensuring stability.
Bangladesh’s future will be significantly shaped by the role that foreign allies like China play as the nation advances. Maintaining strategic alliances and making sure that political and economic changes support long-term stability and prosperity will probably take front stage.
