Janice R. Andrews
Senator Imee Marcos of the Philippines has suggested that recent diplomatic progress between China and India could serve as inspiration for easing South China Sea disputes. While the senator, who chairs the Senate foreign relations committee and shares family ties with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., sees promise in diplomatic solutions, experts warn that the situations are fundamentally different.
Exploring Diplomatic Options
Marcos emphasized Philippine sovereignty over what Manila terms the West Philippine Sea, suggesting that successful China-India negotiations demonstrate the viability of dialogue. However, her diplomatic stance contrasts with her brother President Marcos Jr.’s approach of strengthening U.S. military ties and boosting maritime defenses.
Analyzing the China-India Agreement
The October 21 border agreement between China and India marked a significant step in reducing military tensions along their Himalayan frontier. However, experts emphasize that India’s position differs markedly from the Philippines’, particularly in military capability and geopolitical influence. De La Salle University’s Don McLain Gill points out that India’s demonstrated ability to counter Chinese expansion played a crucial role in achieving the agreement.
Philippine Position and Constraints
Unlike India, the Philippines faces significant power asymmetry when dealing with China. Despite reaching a provisional arrangement for resupplying troops at Second Thomas Shoal in July, tensions persist, with China continuing aggressive tactics against Philippine vessels. The situation is further complicated by China’s rejection of the 2016 international tribunal ruling against its “nine-dash line” claim.
Strategic Context
The South China Sea dispute involves broader international interests, particularly U.S. strategic concerns about freedom of navigation. Muhammad Faizal Bin Abdul Rahman from Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies notes that China views its relationship with the Philippines differently from India, partly due to Manila’s strong U.S. alliance.
Moving Forward
Experts suggest the Philippines’ best approach combines:
- Maintaining strong international partnerships
- Defending territorial rights while avoiding escalation
- Pursuing diplomatic engagement where possible
- Building leverage through regional alliances
While diplomatic solutions remain appealing, analysts suggest that China may only consider serious negotiations if faced with sufficient international pressure or strategic costs. The unique complexities of the South China Sea dispute make a China-India style agreement unlikely without significant changes in the regional power dynamic.
