Janice R. Andrews
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has been in jail for over a year, facing multiple charges. Despite his incarceration, many of his supporters are pinning their hopes on Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5. They believe a Trump presidency could influence Pakistan’s military and political landscape in Khan’s favor. But is this hope realistic?
Khan’s Fall from Power and Claims of U.S. Involvement
Khan, a former cricket star turned politician, was removed from office in 2022 through a no-confidence vote. He subsequently accused Pakistan’s military leadership and Washington of conspiring to oust him, though these allegations remain unproven. Many of his followers, however, firmly believe in U.S. involvement in his downfall.
Raza Rumi, a Pakistani analyst based in the U.S., notes that many Pakistanis believe Washington can sway Pakistani politics due to its historical influence on the country’s foreign and security policies. Khan’s supporters particularly criticize the U.S. Democratic Party and President Biden, whom they feel was unwilling to engage with Khan during his tenure.
Similarities Between Khan and Trump
Khan’s supporters see parallels between him and Donald Trump, viewing both as populist outsiders who challenged their respective political establishments. They recall the cordial relationship between Khan and Trump during the latter’s presidency, including a meeting in Washington and mutual praise.
This perceived alignment has led Khan’s followers to hope for Trump’s return to the White House, believing it could positively impact Khan’s political future. Jimmy Virk, a Middle East-based journalist and Khan supporter, emphasizes Trump’s alleged preference for strong leaders like Khan.
Pakistani-American Support for Trump
The Pakistani-American community in the U.S. has also thrown its support behind Trump. The Pakistani-American Public Affairs Committee recently endorsed Trump, claiming that a “legislative coup” under Biden’s administration led to Khan’s ouster. While the Biden administration denies these allegations, the perception persists among Khan’s supporters.
Can Trump Really Influence Khan’s Situation?
Despite the optimism among Khan’s supporters, experts are skeptical about whether Trump’s potential return would significantly impact Pakistan’s internal politics. Rumi argues that U.S. involvement in Pakistan’s domestic affairs is often exaggerated, especially given the current geopolitical context.
The U.S. now primarily exerts influence through financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank, which are crucial to Pakistan’s struggling economy. It’s uncertain whether Trump would use these institutions to support Khan.
Broader Geopolitical Considerations
Maria Sultan, an Islamabad-based security expert, points out that U.S.-Pakistan relations are rooted in strategic security and geopolitical interests, particularly concerning neighboring countries like Afghanistan, China, India, and Iran. These factors shape U.S. policy towards Pakistan regardless of who occupies the White House.
The ongoing Middle East conflict has once again highlighted Pakistan’s importance in international security dynamics. Analysts believe that during regional instability, the U.S. tends to rely more on Pakistan’s military establishment than on civilian leaders like Khan.
The Military’s Influence on U.S.-Pakistan Relations
Ali K. Chishti, a UAE-based security analyst, emphasizes the Pakistani military’s significant role in the country’s politics and its impact on U.S.-Pakistan relations. He suggests that Trump, if re-elected, would likely engage with Pakistan’s military establishment rather than focus on individual politicians like Khan.
Conclusion
While Khan’s supporters hope that a Trump victory could shift the dynamics between Washington and Islamabad, the reality is likely more complex. Pakistan’s military influence and broader geopolitical significance to the U.S. may outweigh personal relationships between politicians. For now, Khan’s fate remains primarily in the hands of Pakistan’s own military and judicial systems, rather than the outcome of a foreign election.
