Janice R. Andrews
A rare November hurricane is heading toward the U.S., with Hurricane Rafael set to reach the Gulf Coast by this weekend. Recently upgraded to a Category 2 storm, Rafael is bringing uncertainty as it nears, potentially impacting areas from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Here’s what you need to know about this unusual late-season hurricane and its potential effects on the Gulf Coast.
Rafael Gains Strength, Aims for Gulf Coast
Today, Hurricane Rafael intensified to a Category 2 storm as it approached the Gulf of Mexico. Its immediate path targets western Cuba and the Isle of Youth, which are expected to experience its impact within the next 12 hours. With sustained winds reaching 110 mph, Rafael poses a serious threat, with potential for heavy rain, storm surges, and severe winds.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts Rafael will enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, still a hurricane. Tropical storm conditions are anticipated in the Florida Keys, though the storm’s exact path remains uncertain as it heads for the U.S.
Projected Paths and High-Risk Areas
The future path of Rafael remains unpredictable, as minor shifts in wind speed and direction could alter its course. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger noted that the storm’s track could change depending on atmospheric conditions. “If Rafael intensifies or if the surrounding winds shift, its direction could significantly change,” Deger explained.
Currently, Rafael has four possible tracks, with Louisiana at the highest risk of landfall. The NHC has issued a tropical storm warning for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, forecasting up to three inches of rain and an increased tornado threat. The Weather Channel reported, “Bands of rain with strong gusts will affect the region through Wednesday night,” adding that tornadoes could develop in the Keys and southwest Florida.
Precautions and Preparations
With Rafael’s track uncertain, Gulf Coast residents are urged to monitor its developments closely. The NHC stressed the importance of securing outdoor objects and preparing for potential flooding. Those along the Gulf Coast, especially in Louisiana, Florida, and Texas, should also be ready for possible evacuation orders if the storm strengthens.
As of 10:00 a.m. ET, Rafael was approximately 130 miles south-southeast of Havana, moving northwest at 14 mph, according to the NHC. Forecasts warn of hurricane-force winds, storm surges, and hazardous waves in Rafael’s path, including areas of the Western Caribbean, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba.
Rare November Hurricane Threatens US
As an uncommon November storm, Rafael marks the 17th named system in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. November is usually a less active period for hurricanes, with atmospheric conditions less favorable for storm formation.
Since record-keeping began in 1851, the NOAA reports that only 287 hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S., with only four of those occurring in November. The last November storm to hit the U.S. was Hurricane Nicole in 2022, which struck Florida.
This makes Hurricane Rafael the strongest November hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean since 2009, with experts forecasting it could even intensify to a Category 3 storm before it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
Climate Change Fuels Rapid Storm Intensification
Rafael’s rapid strengthening mirrors a trend in recent years, with climate change and record-high ocean temperatures contributing to more intense storms. Rafael is one of nine Atlantic Basin storms this season to rapidly intensify, a trend that NOAA attributes to warmer ocean and atmospheric conditions.
This phenomenon has been observed across the Atlantic Basin, underscoring the need for vigilance in hurricane-prone areas, even as the season ends.
Alternate Paths Could Alter Rafael’s Impact
Though Rafael’s most likely track brings it to the northern Gulf Coast, there’s a chance it could veer westward across the Gulf, sparing the U.S. a direct hit. In this scenario, unfavorable atmospheric conditions could weaken or even dissipate the storm in the Gulf. Deger suggested that high-level winds might even tear the storm apart before it reaches land.
If Rafael stays on course but weakens, it may still bring significant rainfall to the northern Gulf Coast. The Weather Channel has indicated that a nearby cold front could add to rainfall, heightening flood risks over the weekend.
Florida Prepares Amid Recent Recovery Efforts
Floridians are especially on alert, as Rafael’s arrival follows closely behind Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which recently devastated parts of the state. These storms caused extensive damage, resulting in 54 fatalities and over $4 billion in insurance claims. With many communities still in recovery, Rafael poses another significant threat.
In addition to rain and wind, tornado risks are elevated in the Florida Keys and southwestern parts of the state. Residents are advised to secure their properties, stock up on essentials, and stay alert for emergency updates.
Stay Informed to Stay Safe
The National Hurricane Center continues to track Hurricane Rafael’s progress, encouraging those in potential impact zones to stay updated. With Rafael’s path still uncertain, Gulf Coast residents are urged to prepare for potential evacuation and adhere to local authority guidance.
Although November hurricanes are unusual, Rafael is a reminder of the increasing unpredictability of storm seasons. As experts study climate change’s impact on storm behavior, Rafael highlights the importance of preparedness even as the hurricane season draws to a close.
