Janice R. Andrews
Following a month of noteworthy political developments, a number of surprising results from the most recent New York Times/Siena College survey, which was released on Thursday, have come to light. The survey shows a changing dynamic in the presidential contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, aside from the front-runner.
The Narrow Lead of Trump
According to the survey, among probable voters, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by only a single percentage point, 48% to 47%. This slim margin is similar to other Times/Siena surveys conducted prior to President Joe Biden’s appearance in the debate. But there are a lot of other changes and alterations in voter views that go beyond this apparent outcome.
Trump’s Popularity Reachs a Record High
The most obvious change is the rise in popularity of Donald Trump. The poll indicates that 48% of registered voters think favorably of him, which is an increase from 42% in the last survey taken before the debate but prior to the Republican convention and Trump’s assassination attempt. In a Times/Siena survey, which has shown Trump’s favorable ratings ranging from 39% to 45%, this is his highest favorable rating.
The Growing Notoriety of Harris
Kamala Harris’s positive ratings have increased by an even greater margin. Overall, she is now seen positively by 46% of registered voters, up from 36% in February. Her negative rating has also decreased from 54% to 49%. Now that Harris’s favorable rating is higher than Biden’s, a Democrat has led in favorable ratings for the first time since September 2022.
A More Positive National Prospect
There has also been a little improvement in the political climate at the federal level. At 27%, the percentage of voters who think the nation on “right track” is at its highest level since the 2022 midterm elections. Better news for Biden’s popularity and approval ratings: the percentage of people who detest both candidates has dropped from 20% earlier in the year to 8%.
Uncertain Future
Even with the present rankings, there’s no assurance that these outcomes will remain the same when the recent political upheaval fades. The events of the last month have mostly equalized, but it is unclear if this equilibrium will hold up in the upcoming days and weeks.
Assassination attempt and convention bounce
Trump’s recent increases are reminiscent of a classic “convention bounce,” which may have been bolstered by the positive sentiment around his survival of the murder attempt. Such bounces have historically tended to diminish but not entirely vanish.
The Special Position of Harris
Harris’s ascent defies the expectations of traditional political theory. She should be able to sustain her momentum for some time, but how the public reacts to her and the inevitable criticism she receives will determine how well she does moving forward.
Democratic Makeover Approved by Voters
According to a Times/Siena survey, 87% of people support Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential campaign, while only 9% disagree. Nearly four out of five Democrats are in favor of Harris being nominated for president, and 70% think the party should come together in support of her.
A shift in demographics
The Harris-Trump contest has exposed a more conventional demographic gap than Biden’s. In every study this year, Harris does better than Biden among voters who are young (18 to 29) and Hispanic. On the other hand, she does poorly with voters who are over 65 and from the white working class.
Kennedy’s Influence
When all candidates from small parties—including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—were included, Harris was able to tie Trump. With Harris leading Trump 44% to 43% (adjusted to 43.5% to 43.2%), Kennedy received 5% of the vote, the lowest of his previous polling totals.
In the multicandidate contest, when he surpasses a 2-to-1 ratio in winning Kennedy’s supporters, Trump’s lead in the two-way contest does not carry over. Generally speaking, Kennedy’s campaign has resonated more with the right and has received support from Trump as opposed to Biden. But if Harris can win over young, disgruntled voters who typically go Democratic, she may be less susceptible to Kennedy stealing her support.
A dynamic and changing political environment is shown by the most recent New York Times/Siena College survey. Even if Trump still has a slim advantage, there might be a wild contest given the substantial shifts in voter sentiment and demographic support. The 2024 presidential election will be more complicated as a result of Harris’s growing popularity and the changing national landscape. Both candidates will need to steer clear of an unpredictable and quickly shifting electorate as the political dust begins to settle.
