Janice R. Andrews
North Korea recently concluded a two-day session of the Supreme People’s Assembly in Pyongyang, notably avoiding any mention of its position toward the United States under President Donald Trump’s new administration. Experts believe Kim Jong Un is taking a cautious stance, waiting for Trump to make the first move while North Korea fortifies its strategic alliances and military capabilities.
A Strategic Shift in Pyongyang’s Diplomacy
Historically, the Supreme People’s Assembly has been a platform for outlining North Korea’s foreign policy ambitions. This year, however, the session focused on routine matters such as defense spending and the state budget, leaving its stance on the US conspicuously absent. Analysts suggest this signals a calculated shift in North Korea’s diplomatic priorities.
Kim Jong Un’s decision to sidestep the US likely stems from his mixed experiences with Trump. During Trump’s first term, the two leaders engaged in unprecedented diplomacy, meeting three times. Yet, the collapse of the 2019 Hanoi Summit left Kim humiliated and distrustful of further negotiations.
Today, North Korea enjoys a more secure economic and military position, strengthened by agreements with Russia. This has reduced Pyongyang’s urgency for improved relations with the US, giving Kim greater flexibility to bide his time.
Subtle Provocations Amid Silence
While the Assembly refrained from discussing the US directly, North Korea sent a clear message through its actions. Just days after Trump’s inauguration, Pyongyang launched several sea-to-surface cruise missiles. This was followed by a strong condemnation of joint US-South Korea military drills, with North Korea vowing “the toughest counteraction” if its demands for sovereignty and security are ignored.
Moon Chung-in, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul, highlights that these moves align with Kim’s “maximum pressure” strategy on the US. However, the exact nature of this pressure remains unclear as Pyongyang carefully calibrates its approach, avoiding overt antagonism while watching how the Trump administration responds.
Redefining Priorities in US-North Korea Relations
North Korea’s cautious approach reflects a broader recalibration of its foreign policy. In December 2023, Kim publicly stated his belief that the US remains committed to regime change in Pyongyang, leaving little hope for a long-term agreement. This sentiment was formalized in early 2024 when Kim announced that improving relations with the US was no longer a priority. Instead, his government shifted its focus to preparing for potential conflict with South Korea, now labeled as its “primary foe.”
Symbolic and practical measures underscore this shift. North Korea has dismantled cross-border infrastructure, destroyed roads near the Demilitarized Zone, and constructed additional defenses along the border.
Strategic Patience in a Favorable Landscape
Kim appears content to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leveraging a favorable geopolitical environment. Stephen Nagy, a professor at Tokyo’s International Christian University, suggests that North Korea is capitalizing on the distractions facing its rivals. The US is preoccupied with domestic challenges, South Korea is navigating political turbulence, and China, Japan, and Russia are dealing with their own crises.
“Kim is in a geopolitical ‘sweet spot’ at the moment, with everyone else focused on their problems,” Nagy explains. “This gives him the luxury of patience to see what the US might offer.”
The Trump Connection
Despite his cautious stance, Kim may remain open to dialogue with Trump under the right circumstances. During Trump’s first term, the two leaders achieved historic milestones, including the first-ever meeting between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader. However, Kim’s trust in Trump eroded after what he perceived as unmet promises.
Should Trump express genuine interest in reviving negotiations, Kim might engage, but he will likely demand concrete proposals before committing to any discussions.
“Kim felt betrayed when Trump failed to deliver on his promises last time,” notes Moon Chung-in. “Unless Trump presents clear, actionable initiatives, Kim will likely remain hesitant to return to the negotiating table.”
Strengthened Ties with Russia
North Korea’s growing partnership with Russia further shapes its approach toward the US. Moscow’s support has provided Pyongyang with military technology and resources previously inaccessible due to international sanctions. This newfound alliance gives Kim leverage, reducing his dependence on US diplomacy.
Navigating a Complex Future
As global political dynamics evolve, North Korea’s measured approach reflects a strategic recalibration. By avoiding direct confrontation and awaiting Trump’s next move, Kim is positioning himself as a patient yet calculated leader. Strengthened by a more stable economic and military foundation, Pyongyang is in no rush to reengage with Washington on uncertain terms.
The coming months will reveal whether Trump’s administration seeks to rekindle ties with North Korea and whether Kim will respond positively. For now, North Korea’s strategy of cautious observation underscores its determination to maintain control over the terms of any future engagement with the US.
Conclusion
North Korea’s stance toward the US under President Donald Trump is defined by strategic restraint and calculated patience. By focusing on internal stability and strengthening alliances, Pyongyang signals its readiness to adapt to shifting global dynamics. Whether this approach leads to renewed negotiations or deepens the diplomatic rift remains to be seen. For now, Kim Jong Un appears content to let Trump make the first move.
