Janice R. Andrews
Nebraska is taking center stage in the 2024 U.S. election as both presidential campaigns focus on the rural Midwest to capture vital voters. With Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump facing off again, their vice-presidential running mates, Tim Walz and JD Vance, are essential for winning over rural and Midwestern constituents who could sway the election outcome.
Nebraska, with its strong conservative heritage, has an electoral nuance that could be decisive. Unlike most states, it does not adopt a winner-takes-all approach in the Electoral College; instead, three of its five electoral votes are allocated based on individual district outcomes. In 2020, President Joe Biden won Nebraska’s second district, adding an element of unpredictability to the current race. Given this unique system, every vote carries weight, and the stakes are exceptionally high.
For Wade Bennett, a dedicated Republican cattle breeder from Nebraska’s Sandhills, the decision this election cycle is complex. Despite his doubts about Trump’s moral character, he prioritizes policy. “Even as a Christian,” Wade states, “it is what it is.” His worries about illegal immigration and rising living costs align more closely with Trump’s promises than with Harris’s progressive agenda, leading him to reluctantly support the former president.
Trump vs. Harris: The Focus on Rural Voters
In rural America, voters like Wade are crucial for both campaigns. Over recent decades, there has been a significant rightward shift in these areas, with Republicans increasing their lead among rural voters from a six-point margin in 2000 to a remarkable 25-point advantage by 2024. While this demographic change helped Trump secure victory in 2016, Democrats remain determined to compete for rural support. Minor shifts in tightly contested states could tip the scales, making Nebraska’s second district particularly significant.
Tim Walz and JD Vance bring strong rural credentials to the table. Walz, Minnesota’s current governor a small-town Nebraska native, emphasizes his working-class background. His experience as a teacher and football coach, along with his advocacy for family tax credits and free school meals, makes him relatable to rural voters facing economic challenges.
Conversely, JD Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio known for his book Hillbilly Elegy, has gained national recognition by sharing his family’s struggles in Appalachia and his upbringing in a working-class community affected by addiction and unemployment. Vance’s narrative of personal accountability aligns well with Trump’s focus on job protection and border security.
Midwestern Debate: Divergent Visions for America
When Walz and Vance engage in a primetime debate, their differing philosophies will be highlighted. Walz’s message of unity contrasts with Vance’s focus on individual responsibility, likely resonating with various segments of the rural electorate. Each candidate’s compelling backstory could sway undecided voters who may be skeptical of Harris’s California background or Trump’s New York image.
Shana Callahan, a 42-year-old Nebraskan fishing at Two Rivers Recreation Area, reflects the concerns of many rural voters. With inflation driving up everyday costs, her frustrations are evident: “Everything costs more; everything sucks,” she remarks, recalling lower gas prices during Trump’s presidency. For her, economic struggles overshadow concerns about Trump’s personal flaws; she finds Walz unappealing: “The man’s a goofball,” she quips.
In contrast, JD Vance resonates with Shana due to his narrative of family hardship. “I’ve had three friends die of fentanyl,” she shares, highlighting how personal stories like Vance’s deeply connect with communities impacted by the opioid crisis.
Nebraska’s Blue Dot: A Swing District in a Red State
Nebraska’s second district—encompassing Omaha and its suburbs—has emerged as a fiercely contested battleground. This district’s blend of urban Democrats and rural Republicans could significantly influence November’s election outcome. Jason Brown and his wife Ruth Huebner-Brown are actively working to keep this “blue dot” blue by marking lawn signs in support of the Harris-Walz campaign. “We’re like a little swing state within a state,” Jason notes about their district’s potential impact.
The Harris-Walz campaign has invested heavily in Nebraska’s second district, outspending the Trump-Vance campaign to win undecided voters. Ruth believes Walz’s relatable persona is making an impact: “When they talk about Walz, he’s one of us,” she says. “People are tired of divisiveness; he embodies unity.”However, divisiveness remains prevalent even in Nebraska’s heartland. From unfounded claims about immigrant fraud to questions regarding Kamala Harris’s qualifications for office, political tensions run high. JD Vance has fueled controversy by promoting debunked allegations about migrants engaging in bizarre behaviors.
Local Candidates Under National Scrutiny
Despite national attention on Nebraska’s election dynamics, local politics remain vital. The state’s nonpartisan legislature encourages compromise over partisanship. Michelle Smith, a Democratic candidate for local office, understands the challenges of campaigning in such a conservative environment: “I focus on local issues,” she asserts. “I’m not running nationally; I’m here to improve things in Nebraska.”Smith’s experience illustrates the ongoing tension between national narratives and local realities in Nebraska. While Trump and Harris dominate headlines, candidates like Smith are actively engaging voters at the grassroots level.
Republican Resistance and Nebraska’s Unique Electoral System
In a final attempt to secure an advantage for Trump, some Republican lawmakers sought to change Nebraska’s electoral system to a winner-takes-all format before the election. However, local Republican senators blocked this effort to maintain the state’s unique political leverage close to Election Day.
Even Senator Lindsey Graham’s intervention failed to sway these legislators who value their independence from national party pressures. As McDonnell stated regarding this issue: “The decision on how we choose our president should rest with Nebraska voters.”
As Election Day approaches, all eyes are on Nebraska. Whether its second district becomes pivotal or not, the state’s distinct electoral system offers an alternative perspective amid today’s hyper-partisan climate. In Nebraska—where rural voters hold considerable influence—the election outcome may hinge on personal stories from candidates like Tim Walz and JD Vance. With their narratives of hope and struggle resonating deeply among constituents uncertain about Trump and Harris alike, this Midwestern state could play a crucial role in determining the future of the White House as the nation looks on.
