Janice R. Andrews
U.S. allies are extremely uneasy after former President Donald Trump’s casual shrug in response to a question regarding NATO at a high-stakes presidential debate on Thursday night. Amid President Joe Biden’s dismal speech, European concerns about Trump’s long-standing cynicism towards the military alliance have been heightened by his unclear gesture.
The Past of Trump and NATO
Trump has constantly attacked NATO during his political career, even threatening to pull the US out of the alliance. When Biden specifically questioned Trump on leaving NATO during the debate, Trump’s apathy and noncommittal shrug did little to allay fears throughout Europe.
Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ German office Jana Puglierin voiced her worries, saying, “I was very worried before this debate and I’m even more worried now.” Trump has every tool at his disposal to weaken NATO, whether or not he wishes to formally leave the alliance.
Article 5’s Significance
Article 5, which obligates each member nation to defend all others, is the cornerstone of NATO. “Deterrence is all about credibility and, deep down, Article 5 has always been what you make of it,” Puglierin emphasized. So, it hinges on how serious a danger the American president makes it. Due to Trump’s seeming disdain for alliances, there are worries that he may start to focus more on transactional, bilateral ties with European nations.
European Partners at Risk
Former NATO assistant secretary-general Camille Grand listed the following possible dangers if Trump were to win a second term: “Instead of saying, ‘This is a bad idea, Mr. President,’ Trump would be surrounded by people who want to turn his instincts into policy.” Grand emphasized the unpredictable nature of Trump, which is especially important in light of the ongoing crises in Europe.
Grand went on, “But the worst thing is that Europe is at war and he is unpredictable.” “There is always another summit or an opportunity to forge relationships during times of peace. It is more challenging to handle, though, if he suddenly proposes a peace agreement during a conflict or says anything that undermines the US security guarantee.
Higher Military Expenditures
Even though military spending has increased under Biden, Trump boasted of forcing European nations to up their investment in defense. Grand claims that European countries are already paying $130 billion more on defense annually than they were in 2014. But he emphasized how critical it is that Europe be able to defend itself independently of the United States.
Worldwide Responses
The discussion unsettled more people than just those who supported NATO. Concerns regarding the debate’s consequences and the impending election were expressed by commentators from other countries. Historian Sergey Radchenko of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies tweeted, “More damage is being done to American democracy by this election than by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping combined.”
Other academics shared Radchenko’s concerns, believing the debate portrayed America as a nation in decline rather than one at the forefront. There was nothing in the way of an in-depth discussion of foreign policy during the debate. Biden emphasized his attempts to rally allies against Russia, while Trump insisted without providing any justification that he could have stopped both the Israel-Hamas and the Ukraine crises.
European Analysts Offer Their Views
French analyst François Heisbourg speculated that some people were led to believe that a Trump presidency was more likely than not as a result of the debate. “Thus, concerning every topic, the discussion validates the concerns of Europe, and a portion of it has already permeated people’s ideas,” he stated. Particularly worrisome were Trump’s remarks about cutting back on help to Ukraine and his praise for Putin as a capable leader.
One of the strongest criticisms came from Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who likened Biden to Marcus Aurelius, the Roman emperor who failed to find a worthy successor and ultimately led to Rome’s decline. Sikorski emphasized how crucial it is to handle the change in leadership with skill.
Response in Russia and Ukraine
The argument had an immediate effect in Ukraine. Popular radio broadcaster Bogdan Butkevych made social media comments regarding Biden’s failure to persuade people of his enthusiasm and preparedness for leadership. He surmised that this might make it more likely that the Democrats will nominate a different candidate to succeed Biden.
The debate was used by Russian media to emphasize the fragility and disorganization of the United States. Russian politician Dmitry Novikov stated on state television that “destabilization within an adversary is always a good thing.”
Asian Issues
The discussion rekindled worries about the stability of US ties throughout Asia. Relationships in the area were already tense after Trump’s first term, and the discussion did little to reassure countries looking for a fair U.S. strategy toward North Korea and China.
Professor Lee Byong-chul of the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, South Korea, said, “It was a decisive victory for Trump and a setback for the Biden campaign.” Now is the time to prepare for a second Trump presidency.
Officials in Japan are probably going to rekindle concerns about Trump’s transactional perspective on foreign relations. To lessen the effects of a probable second Trump term, political scientist Koichi Nakano of Sophia University in Tokyo proposed that Japanese officials aim to forge stronger institutional links with the United States.
India’s Viewpoint
Trump’s unpredictable nature is a big problem in India. Former senior official Tara Kartha of India’s National Security Council noted that Trump might easily change his stance in response to trade talks with China, which would complicate India’s strategic planning.
Kartha stated, “We are now hedging with China,” expressing her anxiety over upcoming American policy.
Chinese Insights
The discussion was one of the most popular topics on social media in China, and official media channels covered it with little analysis. International relations expert Shen Dingli, who is based in Shanghai, noted that the discussion confirmed the Chinese government’s view that, come election results or not, U.S. policies toward China would only become more restrictive.
As the world observes, concerns regarding NATO’s future and international stability are raised by Trump’s shrug during the discussion, which has repercussions that are felt across continents.
