Janice R. Andrews
The leaders of three NATO countries bordering Russia—Latvia, Estonia, and Finland—have raised serious concerns about the alliance’s ability to defend Europe without the strong involvement of the United States. Their urgent warnings come as geopolitical tensions rise and Russia continues its aggressive actions, reshaping Europe’s security situation.
Dire Warnings from NATO’s Bordering Nations
Latvia, Estonia, and Finland, which share borders with Russia, are urging NATO to bolster its defensive capabilities and reduce its dependence on the U.S.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs expressed his concerns, stating, “We are not ready. That’s absolutely clear. We can’t keep simply hoping for a situation where the US remains much involved in Europe.” He emphasized the need for immediate action to increase NATO’s defense readiness in light of Russia’s ongoing threats and its failure to operate within international norms.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal reinforced this message, saying, “We have to ramp up our defense capabilities because of Russia’s threat and its inability to be a democracy.”
Trump’s Demands for NATO Spending Hike
Donald Trump, the former U.S. President and potential candidate for re-election, has reiterated his call for NATO member states to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP. Currently, NATO’s target is set at 2%, but many countries are still falling short.
Among NATO members, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland are some of the highest defense spenders relative to GDP, with figures of 3.15%, 3.43%, and 2.41%, respectively. However, Russia plans to allocate 6.3% of its GDP to defense in 2024, further widening the gap in military expenditures.
Finland’s Growing Role in NATO
Finland, which became a NATO member only recently, plays a pivotal role in European defense. After decades of neutrality, Finland joined NATO in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland’s military is one of Europe’s largest, with the capacity to mobilize 280,000 troops within a week.
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb highlighted the country’s defense investments, saying, “We don’t have this because we’re worried about Stockholm or London. We have this because we’re worried about Moscow.” Finland’s recent purchase of 64 F-35A fighter jets for £7.5 billion underscores its commitment to strengthening its defense against Russian aggression.
Stubb also commented on Trump’s pressure on Europe, suggesting that while increasing defense spending is essential, focusing on building military capabilities is more critical.
The UK’s Continued Support for Ukraine
The concerns from NATO’s eastern members coincide with the UK’s growing support for Ukraine. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently discussed enhancing the UK-led training mission, Operation Interflex, to strengthen Ukraine’s military readiness.
“President Zelensky reflected on the situation on the frontline in Ukraine and the need to ensure Ukraine could degrade Russian forces for the long haul,” a statement from Number 10 read. The two leaders emphasized that the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine is vital for both Europe and NATO’s security.
UK Defence Secretary John Healey, during a recent visit to Kyiv, reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to Ukraine. He called the current period “critical” for Ukraine and pledged continued support. “The UK is stepping up further the military help we’ll give, and also stepping up further the UK international leadership to try and co-ordinate allies so that we can stand with Ukraine throughout 2025 and beyond,” Healey said.
NATO’s Defense Gap
Although NATO has made progress in increasing defense spending among its members, experts caution that the alliance remains underprepared to face a prolonged conflict with Russia. The disparity in military spending between Russia and most NATO members is a persistent challenge. The lack of a unified approach to defense further weakens the alliance’s collective security efforts.
Trump’s call for higher defense spending may be seen as aggressive, but it highlights the urgency of addressing NATO’s “defense deficit.” Alexander Stubb emphasized that “values-based alliances last much longer than interest-based alliances,” stressing the need for unity among NATO members.
The Future of NATO
With rising geopolitical tensions, NATO faces critical questions about its future. Can the alliance become more self-reliant while maintaining strong ties with the U.S.? Will member states increase defense spending and improve military capabilities to match the threat posed by Russia?
For Latvia, Estonia, and Finland, the risks are particularly high. Their geographic proximity to Russia makes them frontline states in any potential conflict, making the need for robust defense capabilities even more urgent.
Conclusion
The warnings from NATO’s eastern members underscore the pressing challenges facing the alliance in the face of Russian aggression. As NATO navigates internal divisions and external threats, its ability to adapt and respond effectively will determine its long-term stability and security.
Increasing defense investments and strengthening military coordination among member states is no longer optional but vital. NATO must act quickly to address its shortcomings, or it risks losing credibility and undermining the security of millions across Europe.
