Janice R. Andrews
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is actively monitoring a significant weather system in the Caribbean Sea that could develop into Tropical Storm Patty between October 31 and November 4, 2024. The system benefits from favorable development conditions, including low wind shear and warm waters. Additionally, a separate system is being tracked near Florida.
Key points:
Development Potential
- The Caribbean system has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 7 days
- A Central American Gyre may accelerate its formation
- If both systems develop, they’ll be named Patty and Rafael
Current Conditions
- Low wind shear in the Caribbean
- Very warm water temperatures
- Four tropical waves are also being monitored in various locations
Projected Impact
- The system is likely to move north or northeast
- Potential threats to the U.S. Southeast coast
- Risk of heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides in the Caribbean
Historical Context
- Florida has experienced three November hurricanes since 1851
- Late-season storms typically form closer to U.S. shores
- 2024 has already been an notably intense hurricane season
The NHC continues to monitor the situation closely, with the Atlantic hurricane season extending through November 30. Residents in potentially affected areas are advised to stay informed and prepared for possible weather developments.
