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Lithuania’s General Election 2024: Centre-Left Poised for Victory

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and his wife Diana arrive to celebrate victory in the final round of presidential election in Vilnius, Lithuania May 26, 2024. REUTERS/Ints Kalnins
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Lithuania’s recent general election is expected to result in a shift of power, with the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) likely to overtake the ruling conservative Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (HU-LCD). Despite this anticipated change in government, the nation’s core foreign and defense policies are projected to remain stable.

Key Points:

  1. Political Shift:
  • SDP expected to secure around 20% of the vote
  • HU-LCD projected to receive approximately 15%
  • Six to seven parties likely to enter parliament
  1. Foreign Policy Continuity:
  • Strong support for Ukraine to continue
  • Commitment to NATO and EU membership to remain unchanged
  • Defense spending expected to stay at around 3% of GDP
  1. Domestic Focus:
  • SDP promises progressive reforms, including:
    • Increased taxation on luxury goods
    • Additional funding for social services
    • Tax cuts for families with children
  1. Controversial New Party:
  • Nemunas Dawn, led by Remigijus Žemaitaitis, expected to win seats
  • Žemaitaitis faces controversy over alleged anti-Semitic comments
  • Most parties pledge to exclude Nemunas Dawn from potential coalitions
  1. Election Process:
  • First round to determine half of the 141 parliamentary seats
  • Run-off elections scheduled for October 27 to decide remaining seats
  1. Geopolitical Context:
  • Ongoing concerns about Russia’s war against Ukraine
  • Lithuania remains on high alert as a Baltic state
  • Strong commitment to national security persists

Despite the likely change in leadership, Lithuania’s stance on key international issues and its dedication to NATO and the EU are expected to remain constant. The election primarily focuses on domestic matters, with the centre-left promising various social and economic reforms.

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