Janice R. Andrews
A life-threatening situation is unfolding in the Caribbean as Tropical Depression 19 gains momentum, poised to evolve into Tropical Storm Sara. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an urgent advisory, warning of severe weather impacts as the storm could potentially steer towards Florida’s west coast by mid-next week.
Tropical Depression 19 Expected to Strengthen
According to the NHC’s latest update, Tropical Depression 19 is currently situated approximately 250 miles east of Honduras’ Isla Guanaja, advancing westward at a speed of 15 mph. Meteorologists project that the system will intensify into Tropical Storm Sara later today, bringing the threat of heavy rainfall and deadly flash flooding across Honduras through the weekend.
AccuWeather experts caution that there is a possibility the storm could intensify into a hurricane before making landfall on Florida’s west coast by next Wednesday evening. However, due to the system’s current proximity to land, rapid intensification into a major hurricane is now considered unlikely.
“The storm’s development will depend heavily on its interaction with the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the surrounding atmospheric conditions,” stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.
Potential Hurricane Pathways and Impact Areas
Forecasters have released a new “spaghetti model,” named for its resemblance to strands of pasta, highlighting several possible trajectories the storm could take. The model suggests two primary paths: one involving a direct landfall in northern Honduras before veering northeast across Belize, Guatemala, and the southeastern tip of Mexico, and another potentially steering toward Florida.
If Tropical Depression 19 evolves into a hurricane, it would be named Hurricane Sara, marking it as the 12th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Should it make landfall in Florida, it would be the fourth hurricane to strike the state this year, surpassing the previous record of three landfalls in one season, set in 2004.
High-pressure System Influencing Storm’s Trajectory
Meteorologists indicate that the storm’s path is likely to be shaped by a dome of high pressure positioned along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States, in conjunction with an approaching non-tropical storm system and a trailing cold front.
“This high-pressure system and cold front are likely to steer the storm either into Central America or towards the southeastern part of Mexico,” experts noted. “If it veers north, however, it could impact the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula as early as next week.”
Despite the storm’s potential threat to the US mainland, the NHC emphasized that it remains too early to definitively determine the impacts on Florida, the Florida Keys, and nearby regions such as Cuba.
Optimal Conditions for Storm Development
AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno has observed favorable conditions for the storm’s development, including negligible wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures across much of the Caribbean.
“With showers and thunderstorms already forming a circulation, it is only a matter of time before the tropical depression strengthens into a tropical storm,” Rayno explained.
Currently, the depression is generating maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. If it strengthens to a tropical storm, wind speeds could surpass 39 mph, escalating the potential for severe weather.
Heavy Rain and Flooding Concerns in Central America
As the storm inches closer to land, northern Honduras is bracing for intense rainfall, with projections indicating up to 30 inches of rain could fall in some areas. The NHC has issued warnings for widespread flash flooding and potential mudslides, particularly in elevated and vulnerable regions.
Other Central American nations, including Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, are expected to experience significant rainfall, with localized totals reaching up to 15 inches through early next week.
“This level of rainfall can result in life-threatening flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous areas,” the NHC warned.
Impact on Florida and the Gulf of Mexico
If the storm maintains its structure as it crosses Central America, it could reemerge over the Gulf of Mexico, where warm waters might facilitate further strengthening. However, experts note that its interaction with land could diminish its wind intensity, reducing the likelihood of it rapidly escalating into a major hurricane before approaching Florida.
“Although the chances of this storm becoming Hurricane Sara are currently low, there remains a slight chance it could intensify depending on its trajectory and environmental conditions,” added AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Rare November Hurricane Threat
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends in November, making it uncommon for hurricanes to make landfall in the US during this time. Historical data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that of the 287 hurricanes recorded to have made landfall in the US since 1851, only four did so in November, with three impacting Florida and one striking North Carolina.
Despite the statistical rarity, the 2024 hurricane season has been marked by heightened activity, with 12 named storms already recorded, compared to a historical average of seven.
“This season’s heightened activity can be attributed to a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions, which have created an environment conducive to storm development,” DaSilva noted.
Preparations Underway as Residents Monitor the Storm
As the potential threat looms, residents in Florida, particularly in the Keys and the southern parts of the state, are urged to stay vigilant and monitor updates from the NHC and local weather services. With the system’s trajectory still uncertain, preparations for possible storm impacts, including securing property and gathering essential supplies, are advised.
Meteorologists continue to keep a close watch on the evolving weather system as it edges closer to the US mainland, with the next 48 hours being crucial in determining its path and potential impact.
The situation remains fluid, and updates will follow as more information becomes available. For now, the region is on high alert as Tropical Depression 19 inches closer to potentially becoming Tropical Storm Sara, with its sights set on the Gulf of Mexico and beyond.
