A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows that Vice President Kamala Harris is now ahead of former President Donald Trump in North Carolina, a state that Democrats haven’t won since 2008, which is a big change in the 2024 presidential race. This split state gets a lot of attention because Barack Obama famously won it in 2008. In the last three presidential elections, it has been a haven for Republicans.

The study, which was done from September 4 to 8, shows that among potential voters in North Carolina, Harris has 49% more votes than Trump. When third-party candidates are taken out of the picture, this lead rises a little. Harris is now running at 50%, while Trump is at 47%. The poll’s error range for Harris’ lead, however, is ±3.2 percent, which means the race is still very close as the election draws near.

In Georgia, on the other hand, Trump has a small but noticeable lead over Biden, who won that state in 2020. According to the study, Trump is still ahead in Georgia, with 49% to 45% of the vote. He also stays ahead among key ethnic groups. Head-to-head polls that don’t include third-party candidates show that Trump’s lead is now only 49% to 46%, but it is still a big number.

3: Effects on Third Parties

In the past, third-party candidates have made a difference in close races, but it looks like they won’t have as much of an effect this time around. In North Carolina, Jill Stein, the candidate for the Green Party, got only 1% of the vote, and other third-party candidates also didn’t get very many votes. In Georgia, both Cornell West, an independent socialist candidate, and Claudia De la Cruz, of the Party for Socialism and Liberation, got 1% of the vote.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known independent candidate, is not on the ticket in most swing states, which makes it less likely that he will change the result. Third-party candidates haven’t had much of an effect in these southern battlegrounds, which has made the race between Harris and Trump even more important.

Biases Based on Race and Gender

The study shows big differences in how people vote based on race and gender, which shows how divided the 2024 election will be. In North Carolina, women and people of colour are more likely to vote for Harris than for Trump. Men and white voters are more likely to vote for Trump. Sixty percent of women in North Carolina support Harris, while only thirty-seven percent support Trump. Men, on the other hand, like Trump 56 percent to 38 percent.

The gap between races is just as big. Black people who are expected to vote in North Carolina strongly support Harris—85% support her and only 13% support Trump. On the other hand, white people in the state support Trump 56 percent to 41 percent.

In Georgia, Trump does even better with white voters—68% of them back him, compared to only 28% who support Harris. Harris still has a huge lead among Black voters, just like she did in North Carolina. But women in Georgia aren’t as behind her as they are in North Carolina—only 52% of women support her compared to 43% who support Trump.

Key Points to Remember

Harris and Trump are getting ready for their first debate in Philadelphia. Based on the poll results, both candidates will need to work on their plans in these key battlegrounds. The South could once again be very important in choosing the next president. Harris is making progress in usually Republican states like North Carolina, and Trump is doing well in Georgia.