Janice R. Andrews
Japan’s recently appointed Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has made a bold move by eliminating the ministerial position focused on economic cooperation with Russia. This decision, confirmed by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, marks a significant departure from previous administrations’ approaches and reflects growing tensions between the two nations.
The abolished post, originally created in 2016 by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was intended to foster economic ties and potentially resolve the long-standing territorial dispute over islands off Hokkaido. These islands, known as the Northern Territories in Japan and the Southern Kurils in Russia, have been a point of contention since the end of World War II when Soviet forces seized them.
Ishiba’s decision is seen as a critique of Abe’s unsuccessful negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Critics argue that Abe’s diplomatic efforts yielded little progress while giving false hope for a resolution. James Brown, a professor at Temple University’s Tokyo campus and an expert on Japan-Russia relations, noted the surprising longevity of the post given its limited effectiveness.
The position’s relevance had already diminished as Japan reduced its Russian energy imports in response to the Ukraine conflict. However, Japan still relies on the Sakhalin-2 facility for about 9% of its liquefied natural gas imports. Moscow’s reaction to the post’s elimination was dismissive, with a foreign ministry spokesperson stating that Russia has other potential partners if Japan decides to cease energy imports entirely.
This policy shift carries significant domestic political implications. By dismantling a key element of Abe’s legacy, Ishiba is signaling a clear break from previous administration policies and acknowledging their shortcomings. This move has garnered support from the Liberal Democratic Party’s conservative wing and received praise from right-wing media outlets.
The decision also reflects Japan’s evolving strategy in dealing with the territorial dispute. With no progress made in recent years and Russia’s 2020 law prohibiting the cession of territory, Japan appears to be adopting a long-term perspective. Some analysts suggest that Tokyo might be waiting for a potential regime change in Moscow to create more favorable conditions for negotiations.
However, experts like Brown remain skeptical about this approach, citing Japan’s unsuccessful attempts to leverage economic aid during the Soviet Union’s dissolution. As Japan-Russia relations enter a new phase, Ishiba’s decisive action underscores the need for a fresh diplomatic strategy in navigating the complex historical and territorial issues between the two nations.
