Janice R. Andrews
According to a widely watched poll by the central bank, business sentiment among significant Japanese non-manufacturers surged to its highest level in over thirty years during the first quarter. For policymakers, this mood spike suggests that domestic demand might act as a stabilizing influence for the fragile economy of the nation.
The Tankan survey, which was made public on Monday, showed that non-manufacturers’ confidence has significantly improved while large manufacturers’ trust has somewhat declined. The latter was partially ascribed to delays in the manufacturing of automobiles.
These survey findings will be carefully examined by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) at its next meeting on April 25–26, as the central bank gets ready to release new quarterly growth and inflation projections. After the BOJ just announced that it was ending its massive stimulus program, market watchers are anxious to see if these estimates would provide any clues as to when interest rate hikes could occur.
Just below the consensus market estimate of +10, the headline mood index for big manufacturers in March decreased little to +11 from +13 in December. In the meantime, the indicator gauging the mood among the main non-manufacturers rose to +34, somewhat beyond market estimates. This amount represents the greatest level noted since August 1991, the height of Japan’s asset-inflated bubble-driven economic boom.
Even with the present confidence, big manufacturers and non-manufacturers voiced worries about the state of the economy going forward, predicting a minor decline in the upcoming months. Major companies are nonetheless dedicated to raising capital investment, but at a slower rate than they had anticipated. According to the study, capital expenditures are expected to grow by 4.0% for the fiscal year starting in April, which is less than the 9.2% median prediction.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, Japan’s economy just averted a technical recession, mainly due to strong capital investment driving moderate growth. Analysts, however, predict weak growth in the first quarter of this year, noting things like growing living expenses that are eating into spending and industrial production delays brought on by problems with output at several car manufacturers.
The direction of business mood and desire for corporate expenditure will be crucial in evaluating if Japan’s economic recovery can be sustained and whether the BOJ can continue adjusting interest rates. The market anticipates that any future rate rises would be modest, which will put downward pressure on the yen and temporarily drive it to a 34-year low versus the dollar despite the BOJ’s recent decision to end negative rates.
Japan’s service-sector mood has reached a three-decade high, which indicates solid economic momentum. However, hurdles still exist, especially in light of the monetary authorities’ cautious stance and the uncertainty surrounding future conditions.
