Janice R. Andrews
Five Chinese battleships have entered the Sea of Japan, which is also called the East Sea. This has put Japan on high alert because the Chinese are planning to join Russian forces for a series of joint military drills. The drills, called “Northern United 2024,” will happen in both the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk. They are meant to improve military cooperation between the two countries.
This event has caused worry in Tokyo, especially since military experts say the joint drills are a “provocative” display of military unity meant to send a clear message to Japan and the US about how China and Russia are working together more on strategic issues.
Concerns in Japan have grown.
Tokyo is keeping a close eye on things. The Japanese government is getting more and more worried about how well its two powerful neighbors are working together militarily. This is especially true given the size and number of joint drills that have been happening lately.
Masayuki Masuda, a senior researcher at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo, said, “In the last few years, but especially since 2019, we have seen warships and planes from China and Russia doing joint patrols and doing more around Japan.”
From Japan’s point of view, having Chinese and Russian troops close to its seas is a strategic issue. Masuda said that improving military ties between China and Russia could make the region less safe, especially if there is a crisis in the Taiwan Strait or a disagreement over the Senkaku Islands (in Chinese, they are called Diaoyu) in the East China Sea.
At a time when tensions are growing in the area, the drills are seen as a direct threat to Japan’s security, especially since the US and Japan have a security partnership.
China and Russia Work Together on Strategic Issues
Monday, China’s Defense Ministry stated that the drills are meant to “strengthen the ability to jointly deal with security threats” and make it easier for the two countries to work together strategically. Neither Beijing nor Moscow has given much information about the drills, but in the past, the two countries have done mine-laying, chopper operations, live-fire drills, and anti-submarine warfare together.
People see the growing relationship between China and Russia as a check on the power of the US and its friends in the area. Masuda said, “From China’s point of view, having Russia as a strategic partner is a chance to send a political message to the US and Japan, and more specifically to the Japan-US security alliance.”
Experts say that this cooperation is part of a bigger plan by Beijing to scare off its enemies and make the region safer against threats it sees.
Movements of the military and provocation
People say that the present drills, which will happen in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk, are more “equal,” since both countries will play important parts in them. Some experts think that the drills are not only for show, but also to show that the military is ready and to send a message of fear to nearby countries, especially Japan and the US.
James Brown, a professor of international affairs at Temple University’s Tokyo campus, said that the drills are meant to send a clear message to both Tokyo and Washington. “I think these warships will go through some of the straits that surround Japan.” According to international law, they can do that, but Brown said, “That kind of behavior is never seen as friendly.”
A similar group of Chinese and Russian ships went around Japan two years ago. Brown called it a bold show of the two countries’ ability to work together in the area. On their way back to China, this year’s combined force may also travel around Japan, going through the Tsugaru Strait between Honshu and Hokkaido and the Miyako Strait between Okinawa and the Miyako Islands.
What Japan Will Do and Possible Risks
As the Chinese fleet went through the Tsushima Strait on Sunday, which is between Kyushu and South Korea, Japan stepped up its monitoring in case they do something else. If Chinese or Russian ships or planes enter Japanese territorial seas or airspace, Japan is likely to issue formal warnings. Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force is keeping a close eye on the flotilla’s moves with both underwater and air weapons.
Recent events involving a Chinese military plane flying in Japanese airspace near Kyushu and a Chinese research ship going into Japanese seas have made things worse between the two countries. The joint drills make worries about China’s growing role in the area even stronger.
Japan and its partners are still being careful, but Brown played down the overall effect of the joint drills, saying they are more likely to be symbolic than a real sign of how closely the two militaries are working together. Brown said, “Military experts I’ve talked to don’t think there will be many complex maneuvers or anything else that suggests a deep level of integration.” He also said that a lot of the action might just be for show.
Effects on the region
China and Russia are doing drills together at a time when there are a lot of political problems in the Indo-Pacific. China’s aggressiveness in the East China Sea and worries about possible wars in the Taiwan Strait have caused Japan’s defense stance to change more and more. The drills show that China and Russia are working together more and more, which could change the balance of security in the area.
Experts say that the drills are part of a bigger power play meant to send a message to Japan and its friends since Japan keeps a close eye on what the combined fleet does. But Japan hasn’t changed its mind. It is still using its military and political power to keep the area safe and stable. In the next few days, we’ll know more about the drills, but for now, the fact that a Chinese-Russian ship is near Japan is still a sign of how things are changing in the area.
