Janice R. Andrews
With the country preparing for the much awaited September presidential election, Sri Lanka finds itself at a pivotal point in its geopolitical and economic development. The result, according to analysts, would drastically alter Sri Lanka’s ties with China and India, the two regional superpowers. With 39 people running for president, Sri Lanka has a chance to reevaluate its foreign policy and take on urgent economic issues. But the election’s wider ramifications go beyond Sri Lanka’s boundaries, particularly in light of China and India, who are also closely following the contest.
A Country in Peril: The Election’s Importance
The forthcoming election is the first to be held in Sri Lanka since the political and economic unrest of 2022, which ultimately resulted in the overthrow of the Rajapaksa ruling family. Fueled by massive debt, inflation, and depleted foreign reserves, the nation experienced its greatest economic crisis in decades, which resulted in widespread riots and the overthrow of the ruling class. With the help of an IMF bailout package worth $2.9 billion, Sri Lanka is now managing its recovery, but there are still many unknowns on the horizon.
Whoever wins the election will have a significant impact on how Sri Lanka’s economy develops. The IMF program is likely to include significant structural adjustments, and the new leadership will be responsible for guiding the nation through these reforms. But the election also marks a turning point in Sri Lanka’s geopolitical positioning within South Asia, where China and India have a significant impact.
Important Runners: Who’s Still in the Running?
There are a number of well-known candidates running for president, and each one of them stands for a different political and economic course for the country. Among them is the 38-year-old son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Namal Rajapaksa, who is striving to revive his family’s legacy following its precipitous decline from power. In the event of Namal’s victory, the Rajapaksa clan may once again claim prominence in politics as he represents the Sri Lanka People’s Front (SLPP).
Ranil Wickremesinghe, the president in office since the fall of the Rajapaksa dictatorship, is running as an independent. Wickremesinghe has a reputation for having skillful diplomacy, especially when it comes to juggling the conflicting interests of major world powers like China, India, and the United States. Both praise and criticism have been directed towards his economic initiatives and pro-India views.
Sajith Premadasa, a candidate for the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), is another strong contender. After leaving the United National Party (UNP) in 2019, Premadasa positions himself as a populist politician eager to criticize Wickremesinghe’s style of leadership. In the meanwhile, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the head of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the socialist National People’s Power (NPP), is considered a wild card. Concerns have been expressed in New Delhi over his anti-Indian posture and stronger links to China.
India’s Apprehensions: An Important Election
The forthcoming election in Sri Lanka is significant to India not just on a local level but also as a potential “game-changer” for regional geopolitics. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is well aware of Sri Lanka’s strategic significance. His political hegemony in the region was threatened by recent parliamentary setbacks and tense ties with Bangladesh. India is one of Sri Lanka’s most important military and economic partners, and the two countries have a long and complicated relationship together.
With his pro-India inclinations, Wickremesinghe has promoted economic collaboration with New Delhi. Proposed plans to integrate currency with the Indian rupee and welcome investments from India, especially from the Adani Group, which has strong links to Modi’s government, are examples of this. However, opponents of Wickremesinghe’s policies like Premadasa have criticized the rising Indian influence in Sri Lanka and called into doubt its legitimacy.
In the event that NPP candidate Dissanayake triumphs, India could have to cope with a government that is more tolerant of China. His anti-India stance has worried New Delhi, since there are concerns that Sri Lanka may go even further in Beijing’s direction, therefore consolidating China’s sway over the region. An analyst at the Muragala Centre for Progressive Politics and Policy named Harindra B Dassanayake stressed that India would have to exercise “cautious” caution when interacting with a prospective NPP leadership.
China and Sri Lanka Have Close Relations
China has already made a substantial foothold on the island, while India is trying to hold onto its power in Sri Lanka. Significant investment in Sri Lanka has resulted from Beijing’s engagement in the nation’s infrastructure projects, especially through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The contentious decision made by Sri Lanka in 2017 to lease the Hambantota Port to China for 99 years is a notable example of the extent of Chinese influence in the region.
China still has strong strategic interests in Sri Lanka notwithstanding Wickremesinghe’s pro-India stance. Beijing has made “deep inroads” into Sri Lanka, according to analysts like Nilanthi Samaranayake of the US Institute of Peace, and a change in government is unlikely to sever its hold. China would be keen to preserve and strengthen its strategic connections with Sri Lanka no matter who wins the election, especially as it attempts to secure marine lanes in the Indian Ocean.
A Novel Factor in Local Geopolitics?
Although Sri Lanka has always prioritized economic pragmatism above rigid ideological adherence, the geopolitical landscape of today poses fresh difficulties. Samaranayake pointed out that by restricting Chinese operations that cause agitation in New Delhi, Sri Lanka has customarily attempted to avoid upsetting India. With its strong links to China, the NPP’s possible growth might upset this delicate equilibrium.
The election of the NPP will bring about a new and challenging dynamic for India. India’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean area are threatened by the potential for stronger connections between China and Sri Lanka as well as an anti-Indian agenda. Conversely, a Premadasa win or a Wickremesinghe government tenure would probably result in a more stable foreign policy, with China and India continuing to exert their influence.
Handling a Precarious Balance
The task of balancing ties with two powerful regional nations with the nation’s urgent economic requirements is at the core of Sri Lanka’s foreign policy. Uditha Devapriya, chief analyst at Factum, pointed out that Sri Lanka has to adopt a “non-aligned” and “multi-aligned” strategy, which entails keeping cordial ties with both China and India while staying out of regional power struggles.
The impending election elevates the stakes for regional geopolitics while also providing Sri Lanka with a critical chance to rethink its diplomatic and economic policies. The next president of Sri Lanka will have to carefully balance conflicting interests while attending to the pressing needs of a country that is still recovering, since both China and India have a great stake in the result.
