Janice R. Andrews
As Germany gears up for its federal election in February, a significant and often overlooked demographic is poised to play a crucial role in shaping the nation’s political landscape: immigrant voters. With over 7 million eligible voters having an immigration background, this group constitutes more than one in eight of Germany’s electorate. Their potential to influence the election outcome is immense, especially as traditional political parties strive to regain their trust and support.
A Significant and Diverse Demographic
Germany’s immigrant population is extensive and varied, including individuals who have migrated themselves as well as those with parents who moved to the country. This encompasses sizable communities from Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa, and ethnic Germans relocating from the former Soviet Union. Despite their considerable numbers, immigrant voters historically have lower turnout rates compared to native Germans. Sociologist Friederike Römer from the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM) points out that this group not only votes less frequently but also exhibits reduced loyalty to established political parties.
Shifting Party Allegiances
Römer’s research reveals that the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) currently holds the highest potential among immigrant voters. Approximately 20% of voters with a migrant background are open to supporting the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). However, a significant portion of these voters feels disillusioned, with many believing that no party adequately addresses their concerns. This skepticism presents both a challenge and an opportunity for political parties to reconnect with this vital voter base.
Interestingly, newer political entities such as the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Left Party are gaining traction among immigrant voters, whereas the traditionally green-aligned Green Party is struggling to resonate. This shift indicates a realignment of political preferences within the immigrant community, driven by changing priorities and perceptions of party effectiveness.
Key Issues Influencing Voting Behavior
Economic stability is a top priority for immigrant voters. Concerns about inflation, retirement security, and housing are among the most pressing issues affecting their daily lives. Römer notes, “People with a migrant background often report being more concerned about their retirement plans or living situations than those without a migrant background.” In contrast, native voters tend to prioritize issues such as crime prevention.
These economic concerns make immigrant voters particularly receptive to parties that offer tangible solutions. Despite its far-right stance, the AfD has skillfully tapped into these anxieties by positioning itself as a defender against new immigration, subtly suggesting that long-term immigrants are not the issue, but rather the influx of new arrivals. This strategic approach has proven effective, especially on social media platforms, where the AfD has built a strong presence.
AfD’s Targeted Approach
The AfD’s strategy focuses on specific subgroups within the immigrant population, including those of Turkish origin, individuals critical of Islam, and long-established immigrants from regions like the Middle East and North Africa. Yunus Ulusoy from the Center for Studies on Turkey and Integration Research (ZfTI) at the University of Duisburg-Essen observes that while the AfD’s messaging targets these communities, its overall appeal within the Turkish-rooted population remains limited.
Traditionally, German-Turkish voters have leaned towards the Social Democrats. However, recent trends show a decline in their support, with many opting to abstain from voting altogether. Ulusoy attributes this disengagement to experiences of discrimination and exclusion, which foster a sense of alienation from the political process. “There is a large group of young people who have experienced discrimination and ostracization, and this has given them the impression that they don’t really belong,” he explains. This disenfranchisement poses a significant hurdle for parties aiming to mobilize immigrant voters.
Late Repatriates and AfD’s Appeal
Another important subgroup within the immigrant voter base consists of ethnic Germans resettling from the former Soviet Union, often referred to as “late repatriates.” Historian Jannis Panagiotidis from the Research Center for the History of Transformations (RECET) at the University of Vienna highlights that this group shares a common feeling of not belonging, especially following geopolitical tensions such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The AfD has capitalized on these sentiments by promoting a law-and-order agenda and adopting a critical stance on migration, resonating with many late repatriates who feel insecure about their status and wary of new immigrants, particularly from Muslim-majority countries.
Panagiotidis explains that the AfD’s focus on authoritarian policies and migration control has made it the preferred choice for a portion of the post-Soviet community. This strategic positioning allows the AfD to appeal to voters concerned about maintaining their cultural identity and economic stability in a changing Germany.
Low Voter Turnout: An Unmet Opportunity
Despite the potential influence of immigrant voters, overall turnout remains disappointingly low. Ulusoy emphasizes that feelings of exclusion and negative experiences with the political system contribute to this apathy. “This feeling is hurtful, and this hurt can cause young people to turn away from politics entirely and not even bother voting,” he says. This disengagement not only diminishes the representation of immigrant communities but also leaves a significant segment of the electorate open to alternative parties like the AfD, which are eager to fill the void left by mainstream parties.
Political Parties’ Efforts to Engage Immigrant Voters
In response to these shifting dynamics, traditional parties like the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are making concerted efforts to win back immigrant voters. They are focusing on policies that address pension concerns, particularly appealing to the aging population of late repatriates. However, Panagiotidis warns that these efforts may not be sufficient. He suggests that parties like the BSW, which do not position themselves as far-right, have the potential to attract a broader spectrum of immigrant voters, including those from the post-Soviet community.
Strategies for Enhanced Engagement
To harness the voting power of immigrant populations, German political parties must adopt inclusive strategies that address the unique challenges faced by these communities. This includes combating discrimination, fostering a sense of belonging, and presenting clear, actionable policies that tackle economic and social issues. Engaging with immigrant voters requires more than just outreach; it demands genuine efforts to understand and incorporate their perspectives into the political discourse.
Römer advocates for a renewed focus on building trust with immigrant communities. “When we ask immigrant voters which party they believe has the expertise to solve current problems, they answer ‘none’ more frequently than people without an immigrant background,” she notes. Bridging this trust gap is crucial for parties aiming to secure the support of this influential voter base.
Conclusion: Immigrant Voters as Electoral Deciders
As the February federal election approaches, the role of immigrant voters in Germany cannot be overstated. With their significant numbers and the potential to sway electoral outcomes, immigrant voters stand as a crucial determinant in the nation’s political future. Political parties that successfully engage and address the concerns of this demographic will not only enhance their electoral prospects but also contribute to a more inclusive and representative political landscape in Germany.
In essence, immigrant voters hold the key to shaping the next chapter of German politics. Their decisions at the ballot box will reflect broader societal shifts and the country’s ability to integrate and empower its diverse population. As parties race to secure their support, the upcoming election will likely be a defining moment for immigrant representation and political engagement in Germany.
