Janice R. Andrews
Despite November’s arrival, the Atlantic hurricane season continues to show remarkable activity. With three potential storm systems developing and the season’s official conclusion set for November 30, meteorologists are closely tracking these late-season threats that could impact Central America and the Gulf of Mexico region.
Three Areas of Concern
Caribbean System Shows Promise
A developing system in the western Caribbean has caught forecasters’ attention, with high chances of becoming a tropical depression by early next week. If it strengthens further, it could become Tropical Storm Patty. The system benefits from favorable conditions, including warm waters and minimal wind shear. While its trajectory remains uncertain, initial projections suggest possible movement toward the Gulf of Mexico, though changing atmospheric conditions may limit its intensity.
Northeast Caribbean Faces Flood Threat
Recent record-breaking rainfall in Puerto Rico and surrounding islands may be compounded by a second system in the northeast Caribbean. Though less likely to develop into a tropical storm, this disturbance threatens additional flooding. Residents of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should prepare for heavy weekend rainfall, with particular concern for areas already waterlogged from previous storms.
Atlantic Disturbance Poses Limited Risk
A third system located in the open Atlantic shows moderate development potential but remains far from populated areas, presenting minimal immediate risk to land.
An Unconventional Season
This year’s hurricane season has defied typical patterns, featuring:
- Above-average named storms and hurricanes
- An unusual lull during peak months (August-September)
- Five U.S. hurricane landfalls
- Late-season activity in typically quiet periods
Historical data from NOAA reveals that since the 1800s, the Atlantic has hosted over 125 November tropical storms and hurricanes. While most storms typically form earlier, the Caribbean and central Atlantic remain conducive to late-season development due to sustained warm waters and favorable wind conditions.
Recent major hurricanes Helene and Milton benefited from unusually warm Gulf waters. Although Gulf temperatures have declined, they remain above typical November levels. The Caribbean is expected to maintain conditions favorable for tropical development throughout the month.
Looking Ahead
While December tropical systems are rare, with only about two dozen recorded since the 1800s, history shows they’re not impossible. As these three systems evolve, coastal residents should maintain preparedness despite the approaching end of hurricane season.
In a year that has already exceeded expectations, November could deliver final surprises before the Atlantic season concludes—assuming it follows the traditional timeline at all.
