Janice R. Andrews
Hurricane Rafael Weakens, Gulf Coast Residents on Alert
Meteorologists are actively monitoring Hurricane Rafael’s potential path through the Gulf of Mexico after it struck Cuba as a Category 3 storm. Although Rafael has weakened to a Category 2, experts from AccuWeather and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continue to track its progress as it moves into cooler waters, which could result in further weakening.
Current Situation and Expected Trajectory
Rafael, which brought significant damage to Cuba, is currently moving west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. While it initially showed signs of heading toward the U.S., forecasts indicate that it is unlikely to make landfall, particularly in Florida. Experts predict that a high-pressure system, known as a mid-level ridge, will guide the storm westward, pushing it toward Mexico by Saturday.
Although there is an “extremely low” chance of Rafael making landfall in the U.S., the lower Florida Keys might still experience peripheral impacts, such as storm surges and coastal flooding. According to the NHC, water levels in certain areas could rise up to a foot above normal high tides, with the lower Florida Keys possibly seeing surges of one to two feet. Dangerous rip currents and swells are expected along the Gulf Coast, extending west to east throughout the week and into the weekend.
Cuba’s Damage and Storm Path
Rafael made landfall in Cuba’s Artemisa province at 4:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday as a Category 3 storm, packing winds up to 115 mph. The storm caused widespread flooding and power outages across western Cuba. Reports from the Associated Press revealed severe damage in Havana, with massive waves, gusty winds, and torrential rain. Streets were flooded, and trees were knocked over, leaving a trail of destruction.
As of 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, Rafael was about 186 miles west of Key West, Florida, moving at 9 mph in a west-northwest direction. The storm had weakened slightly, with sustained winds recorded at 100 mph.
Potential Threats to the Gulf Coast
While the likelihood of Rafael making landfall in the U.S. is low, meteorologists advise Gulf Coast residents to stay informed. A high-pressure ridge is expected to direct the storm westward, away from the U.S., but experts caution that changes in atmospheric conditions could alter its path. A non-tropical storm from the south-central U.S. might affect Rafael’s trajectory, potentially pushing it toward the Gulf Coast. There is also the possibility that the storm could weaken further or even dissipate due to strong winds in the upper atmosphere, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger.
Swells generated by Rafael are likely to create hazardous surf conditions and rip currents along the Gulf Coast, while heavy rain and flash flooding are possible along the southern Atlantic coast. AccuWeather warns that these conditions could persist through the weekend.
New Storm Developing Near the Leeward Islands
In addition to tracking Rafael, meteorologists are monitoring another low-pressure system near the Leeward Islands. This system, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, has a 20% chance of strengthening into a hurricane over the next 48 hours. Regardless of its development, the storm could bring heavy rainfall to areas such as Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.
Florida’s Coastal Communities Face Ongoing Challenges
Even though Rafael is not expected to make direct landfall in Florida, its peripheral effects may add further strain to communities already dealing with the aftermath of Hurricanes Helene and Milton. These two storms, which hit Florida within two weeks of each other, caused widespread damage and claimed the lives of at least 54 people. According to Florida’s Office of Insurance Regulation, combined insurance claims from both storms have exceeded $4 billion, exacerbating the financial burden on the state.
With the storm’s path moving away from the U.S., residents in Florida’s coastal regions, particularly in the lower Florida Keys, should stay updated on storm advisories. Although the threat of direct impact is minimal, coastal flooding and storm surges remain a concern.
The Bigger Picture for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which has seen increased activity. The storm highlights the unpredictable nature of hurricanes, with the potential for sudden changes in path or intensity. Experts continue to stress the importance of preparedness, especially for vulnerable coastal communities.
What Gulf Coast Residents Need to Know
The NHC and AccuWeather recommend that residents in Gulf Coast states, particularly Florida, stay informed and adhere to any advisories regarding storm surges or coastal conditions. While Rafael is expected to move away from the U.S., slight changes in its path could impact the Gulf Coast, making it essential for communities to stay vigilant.
Meanwhile, meteorologists will continue monitoring both Rafael and the developing storm near the Leeward Islands. As Rafael weakens, attention will shift to potential impacts from the Atlantic storm system, which could bring heavy rain and flash flooding to several islands.
