Janice R. Andrews
The return of mpox, which used to be called monkeypox, has caused worry around the world after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared it a Public Health Emergency of International worry. The return of this virus, especially its new form, has caused a lot of questions and doubts about how it spreads, how deadly it is, and whether it could cause a worldwide outbreak. But to fully understand what’s going on now, we need to be aware that there is not just one outbreak, but three separate ones, each caused by different things and hitting different groups of people.
The Three Mpox Outbreaks: Clades 1a, 1b, and 2: There are three main types of mumps that are growing right now. They can be told apart by their clades, which are different parts of the virus’s family tree.
Clade 1a: This outbreak has been going on for more than ten years and is mostly harming the western and northern parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Bushmeat, which is meat from sick animals, is the main way that it is spread. Close touch between people is how diseases are spread, and children are especially at risk.
Clade 1b: This new and scary type of mpox is spreading quickly in the eastern DRC and nearby countries like Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, and Rwanda. Clade 1b, on the other hand, is spreading through sexual networks, especially among truck drivers and sex workers who are being abused along major transportation lines. Children are also getting the virus from close touch with adults who have it.
Clade 2: The world mpox outbreak in 2022 was caused by this variety, which mostly affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with other men. Even though Clade 2 got a lot of attention during the 2022 outbreak, it is important to remember that this strain is still going around and hasn’t been completely wiped out yet.
Clade 1b is on the rise: a new threat
The appearance of Clade 1b has become a major issue of worry around the world. This strain was first seen in the gold-mining city of Kamituga in South Kivu, DRC, in September 2023. It quickly spread across borders thanks to the high movement of trucks and the widespread sex trade in the area.
The severe signs that Clade 1b causes are one of the most scary things about it. Professor Trudi Lang from the University of Oxford says that this strain is linked to more serious rashes and longer sickness, and that it is mostly spread through sexual contact. But it hasn’t been proven yet that Clade 1b’s genetic difference makes the virus more likely to spread. Instead, its fast growth might be because of the high-risk behaviors that come with the sex trade.
Questions Not Answered: Transmission and Death
The lack of complete data makes it hard to figure out how dangerous the present mpox breakouts are. There are still a lot of questions about how common the new Clade 1b type is and how deadly it might be. The head of the WHO’s mpox program, Dr. Rosamund Lewis, stresses that just because the virus spreads more quickly through sexual networks does not mean it is more easily spread.
In the past, mpox has had a high death rate, especially for Clade 1. In some cases, death rates were as high as 10%. But this number might not really show how things are right now, because things like poor diet, HIV that isn’t being treated, and a lack of access to healthcare in affected areas could make death rates higher. The WHO says that 3.6% of Clade 1a cases will die in 2024, but they don’t have any similar numbers for Clade 1b.
In the early days of HIV, this is like
People have said that the recent mpox cases in the DRC are like the early days of the HIV epidemic. This comparison is especially useful for Clade 1b, where the first people to get sick are young, abused sex workers, drivers, and their families. There are a lot of similarities between the two viruses. Both spread quickly along transportation routes and hurt people who don’t have easy access to medical care.
Professor Lang warns against underestimating how much mpox and early HIV are alike, pointing out how social and economic factors play a part in the virus’s spread. In the DRC, the ongoing war and humanitarian disasters make it harder to stop the spread of the disease.
What this means for the world: Is mumps the next big disease?
The situation in the DRC is very bad, but experts think that mpox is not likely to become as bad as COVID-19 and spread around the world. Localized spread of the virus is the main threat to places like the UK, and cases brought in by tourists are the main driver of this. There have already been cases in the UK related to the 2022 Clade 2 outbreak, but they haven’t spread to other places.
The most likely thing to happen in places other than Africa is small cases in homes or towns, especially if a child brings the virus with them. But mpox scientist and doctor Dr. Jake Dunning thinks that large-scale cases are not possible, especially in places with good healthcare systems and easy access to vaccines.
Vaccinations and prevention: why the whole world needs to work together
The current mpox situation makes it even more important for people all over the world to work together on vaccinations and other efforts to stop diseases. However, not everyone has the same access to smallpox medicines, which are useful against mpox. People who are most at risk, especially those in the DRC and nearby countries, don’t have easy access to health care and vaccinations.
The global community, according to Dr. Dunning, doesn’t share resources, especially vaccines, with those who need them the most. He says that stopping the outbreak where it started in Africa is the best way to keep the virus from going to other places.
Conclusion: Being alert and ready
As people around the world try to deal with the return of mpox, it is important to be both alert and ready. Even though the virus probably won’t spread like COVID-19 did, it could still cause small outbreaks in certain areas and have very bad effects on people who are already weak. To stop the spread of mpox and lessen its effects on communities that have been affected, countries will need to work together, especially when it comes to getting vaccinated and getting medical care.
