Janice R. Andrews
A new study from Yahoo News and YouGov shows that Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 5-point lead over former President Donald Trump. This is because Harris did so well in a recent debate. The study, which was done after the discussion on September 10, shows that among registered voters, Harris is ahead of Trump by 50% to 45% in a head-to-head matchup. This is her biggest lead in the race so far, and it shows that voters have changed their minds in a big way.
The rise of Harris in the polls
In earlier Yahoo News/YouGov polls, Harris and Trump were very close. In August, Harris had the smallest lead, with 47% to 46%. But this new poll of 1,755 U.S. adults shows that Harris is making progress in a number of important groups. Latinos now support Harris 4 points more than President Joe Biden. Women now support Harris 5 points more, Black Americans 14 points more, and young people 18 to 29 years old 17 points more.
Harris was also able to change the minds of independent voters who had backed Trump before by 9 points. Now, Harris is 10 points ahead of Trump in this important group of voters, with 47% backing her and 37% voting for Trump.
Performance in the Debate Helps Harris’s Movement
Harris’s recent rise was largely due to how well she did in the debate. 56% of people who watched the debate or read about it later think Harris won, while only 26% think Trump did. A lot of people who voted also said that Harris’s performance was “presidential,” “coherent,” and “competent.” Most of the people who answered thought Trump was more “insulting” and “untruthful.”
Voters said Harris did better than Trump on important topics like abortion, the January 6 attack on the Capitol, and the cost of living, which was brought to light in the debate. In terms of policy, this advantage helped make Harris the more popular choice.
Getting support from important voting groups
The Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that Harris is getting more support from important Democratic groups, especially those who weren’t sure about her candidature at first. After getting support from 90% of Democrats, Harris now has 95% of Democrats’ support, up from 90%, and 92% of 2020 Biden voters’ support, up from 80%. This growing group of Democrats who back her has helped raise her total numbers.
Trump, on the other hand, has kept his support steady at about 45%, which suggests that Harris’s rise is not because Trump is losing followers but because she is picking up new ones.
Changes in the groups of likely voters and third-party candidates
When third-party candidates and potential votes are taken into account, Harris’s lead stays the same. Even with third-party candidates taken into account, Harris still has a 4-point lead over Trump, with 48% of the vote to Trump’s 44%. Harris has a 49% to 45% lead among potential voters, which shows how strong she is going into the home stretch of the race.
These numbers are very important because during his term, President Biden, who Harris replaced on the Democratic ticket, never got more than 50% of the vote against Trump in any Yahoo News/YouGov poll. Harris has hit this important point, which shows how excited people are about her candidature.
How Long Will Harris’s Lead Last?
Trump has said there will be no more debates, but Harris has asked for one in October. It’s not clear if this rise in support for Harris will last until Election Day. But the most recent study shows that people’s general feelings about both candidates have changed a little since the discussion.
There are more and more Americans who think Harris will win the race instead of Trump. That was in July, when 53% of Americans thought Trump had a better chance of winning. Now, 42% of respondents say Harris has a better chance, while only 33% say Trump does.
People’s opinion of Harris as a “liberal” has gone down a little, but her favourable rate has gone up by two points. In comparison, voters’ negative views of Trump have grown, with more calling him “chaotic,” “dishonest,” and “extreme.”
The Way Ahead
The most recent poll from Yahoo News and YouGov shows how things are now that the debate is over. Harris has a big lead, but it’s not clear if that will carry over to the election. There is still more than a month until the election, so both parties will be working hard to make their points clear and sway any voters who are still on the fence.
For now, Harris’s showing in the debate has given her a big boost, and she is in a great situation to keep building on that. The big question for everyone is whether Trump can come back or Harris’s lead will grow over the next few weeks.
