Janice R. Andrews
The most recent New York Times/Siena College polls, which were made public on Saturday morning, show that Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly changed the nature of the 2024 presidential contest. In Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Harris leads former President Donald Trump by four points apiece among potential voters, according to the most recent swing state surveys, which are the first since Harris declared her candidature. This is a big change from earlier polls that showed Trump with a slim edge over Senator Elizabeth Harris and President Joe Biden.
The outcome highlights the significance of Harris’s addition to the contest, which has changed the electoral terrain in these crucial battleground states. The 2024 election seemed to be between two extremely disliked candidates up until this point, giving many voters the unfortunate option of choosing the least of two evils. But Harris’s meteoric rise to prominence points to a resurgence of voter fervour that has the potential to drastically alter the course of the race.
A Change in Voter Attitude
The change in voter mood is especially noteworthy given the extremely divisive political climate that has prevailed in the last several US elections. Voters’ perceptions about candidates typically don’t change much after they are formed. Harris’s ascent in the polls, however, indicates that her candidature has given the contest fresh vitality and provided an alternative to the firmly held beliefs surrounding Trump and Biden.
According to the Times/Siena survey, Harris is now viewed favourably by at least 49% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, a percentage that neither she nor Biden had previously attained. This rise in popularity stands in stark contrast to Trump’s favorability rating, which is still below the threshold needed to win a lead versus Harris at 46%, despite a minor improvement.
A “Generic” Democrat’s Appeal
The most remarkable thing about Harris’s current position is how much she resembles a “generic” Democrat, a candidate who is more popular in surveys than particular, well-known politicians because they are widely acceptable to a wide spectrum of voters. This may sound like a backhanded praise at first, but the position is really quite sought for. In the past, polls have demonstrated that a generic Democratic or Republican without a name frequently performs better than identified candidates who are burdened by well-known political baggage and prior scandals.
This trend was shown in previous polling, where Trump was ahead of an unidentified Democrat in these same key states by around 10 points, despite Trump’s modest advantage against Biden and Harris separately. At the time, the idea of a new Democratic candidate with the ability to unite the party and appeal to a wider public was mostly theoretical. Given her prior low approval ratings and the difficulties of serving as vice president, few anticipated Harris would take on that position.
But according to the most recent surveys, many people now see Harris as the kind of Democrat who is generally acceptable. She is characterised by most respondents as educated, honest, and having the temperament and vision required to be the nation’s leader. Crucially, just 44% of probable voters think she is too liberal; an equal number think she finds the appropriate balance; and a tiny minority even wish she were more radical.
The Path Ahead: Can Harris Continue to Gain Ground?
Although Harris has benefited greatly from recent surveys, it is still unclear if she will be able to maintain this momentum as the campaign goes on. Her candidature has received positive media attention and a flurry of endorsements thus far, but this will eventually give way to more oppositional scrutiny and criticism. Whether Harris can hold onto her advantage will depend greatly on how she handles this trickier part of the campaign.
The Times/Siena survey highlights the erratic nature of public opinion rather than making any firm predictions regarding Harris’s future performance. The sharp change in public opinion towards Harris over the last several weeks serves as a warning that voters’ perceptions of her may not be as firmly held as those of Trump or Biden. Harris’s current advantage over Trump might be precarious, just as Trump’s previous lead against her was not founded on strong opinions of the vice president.
A Changed Race
For the time being, at least, it is clear from the most recent battleground surveys that Kamala Harris has turned the 2024 presidential contest upside down. Her meteoric rise in crucial swing states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—has offered Democrats fresh hope for winning the presidency again. However, there is still a long way to go until the election, and as candidates take on fresh chances and challenges, the race’s dynamics will probably continue to change.
For the time being, though, it’s certain that Harris has changed the race in a way that few saw coming. It remains to be seen if she can maintain this momentum, but there is no denying her influence on the 2024 race.
