Gubernatorial Contests 2024: Critical Developments and Implications

The 2024 election cycle will see gubernatorial races in 11 U.S. states and two territories on November 5, coinciding with presidential and congressional elections. While both major parties have secure footholds, Republicans face greater challenges, particularly in states where President Biden prevailed in 2020.

GOP Vulnerabilities

Republicans are defending governorships in two Biden-won states from 2020: Vermont and New Hampshire. In Vermont, incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott seeks re-election and is favored to win despite the state’s Democratic lean. New Hampshire presents a more contentious battleground with Governor Chris Sununu’s retirement. Republican Kelly Ayotte faces strong opposition in this now toss-up race, with Democrats aiming to nationalize the contest while Republicans focus on local issues. CNN reports Ayotte confronts an “uphill battle” as Democratic support grows, potentially boosted by Vice President Harris’s influence.

Democrats’ North Carolina Challenge

North Carolina poses a complex scenario for Democrats. Despite Trump’s 2020 victory there, term-limited Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is departing. Republican candidate Mark Robinson has faced criticism over Hurricane Helene recovery comments, possibly impacting his chances. However, analysts still favor Democrats to retain this governorship.

Stable Territories

Several states are expected to maintain their current party control. Democrats are likely to keep Delaware, with Matt Meyer poised to succeed Governor John Carney, and Washington, where Bob Ferguson is set to replace Governor Jay Inslee.

Republicans have strong holds in Indiana (Mike Braun likely succeeding Eric Holcomb), Missouri, North Dakota, Montana (Governor Greg Gianforte seeking re-election), Utah (Governor Spencer Cox running again), and West Virginia.

Concluding Perspective

While major shifts in gubernatorial control are not anticipated, New Hampshire and North Carolina emerge as key battlegrounds, with both parties vying for advantage heading into the 2024 presidential election.