Janice R. Andrews
Germany is grappling with a pressing question: Should it reconsider its stance on nuclear weapons? With US nuclear weapons still stationed on German soil and President Donald Trump’s wavering commitment to European defense, the debate over nuclear deterrence has taken center stage. Could France, with its independent nuclear arsenal, step in to fill the gap?
US Nuclear Weapons in Germany: A Decades-Long Shield
For decades, Germany has relied on the US nuclear umbrella for its security. Up to 20 US nuclear weapons are stored at the Büchel Air Base in Rhineland-Palatinate, under the framework of NATO’s “nuclear sharing” agreement. While the US controls the codes to launch these weapons, Germany provides the fighter jets that would deliver them in a crisis. This arrangement has been a cornerstone of European security, ensuring collective deterrence against potential threats.
However, Trump’s “America First” policies and his threats to reduce US military support for NATO allies have cast doubt on the reliability of this arrangement. As a result, Germany is now exploring alternative options to ensure its security.
France Offers a Helping Hand
French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly proposed discussions with Germany on European nuclear deterrence, leveraging France’s independent nuclear arsenal. Until recently, Germany showed little interest. But the political landscape is shifting. Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a likely candidate for chancellor, has expressed openness to dialogue with France and the UK on this issue.
France, with its 290 nuclear warheads, is the only EU country possessing its own nuclear weapons. Macron has positioned France’s “Force de frappe” as a potential deterrent for all of Europe. However, France has made it clear that it would retain sole control over its nuclear arsenal, raising questions about how such cooperation would work in practice.
Public Opinion in Germany: A Growing Divide
The debate over nuclear weapons is not just confined to political circles. Recent polls show a notable shift in German public opinion. Surveys by Forsa and Civey in early March revealed that 31% and 38% of Germans, respectively, support the idea of Germany acquiring its own nuclear weapons. While still a minority, this marks a significant increase compared to previous years.
However, Germany faces legal and practical hurdles to developing its own nuclear arsenal. The 1990 “Two Plus Four Treaty” prohibits Germany from possessing nuclear weapons, and the country lacks the infrastructure and materials needed for such an endeavor. Moreover, as a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Germany is committed to avoiding the development of nuclear arms.
Friedrich Merz has firmly rejected the idea of Germany acquiring nuclear weapons, stating that the country has “expressly renounced” such capabilities and will continue to do so. Instead, he advocates for closer cooperation with France and the UK on nuclear deterrence.
Challenges of European Nuclear Cooperation
While France and the UK both possess nuclear weapons, their arsenals differ significantly in structure and purpose. The UK’s nuclear deterrent is entirely sea-based, consisting of four submarines stationed in Scotland. These forces are closely integrated with NATO and the US. France, on the other hand, maintains an independent nuclear force, emphasizing national sovereignty and control.
Security experts caution that any European nuclear cooperation would face significant challenges. Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) notes that joint exercises between German and French air forces are conceivable, but the stationing of French nuclear weapons in Germany is unlikely. Moreover, France has consistently stated that it will not relinquish control over its nuclear arsenal, making it difficult to replicate the US’s nuclear guarantees.
The Future of US Nuclear Weapons in Europe
Despite Trump’s rhetoric, experts believe the US is unlikely to withdraw its nuclear weapons from Europe in the near future. NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement remains strategically important for the US, particularly in countering Russian aggression. However, Trump’s unpredictability has already undermined confidence in US commitments, prompting Germany and other European nations to rethink their security strategies.
Sascha Hach of the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) warns that even if US nuclear weapons remain in Europe, the damage to trust and credibility may be irreversible. Germany is now accelerating plans to modernize its military and strengthen its defense capabilities, signaling a broader realignment of its security policy.
The Bigger Picture: Deterrence in a Changing World
The debate over nuclear weapons in Germany reflects broader concerns about the future of European security. With Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal and growing geopolitical tensions, the effectiveness of NATO’s nuclear shield is being questioned. Would a European nuclear deterrent, led by France, provide sufficient protection?
While France’s nuclear forces are formidable, they are not designed to replace the US’s role in European defense. As Hach points out, the number of nuclear weapons is less important than the strategic relationships and mechanisms that underpin collective security. Without the US, Europe risks losing not only its nuclear shield but also the broader military and political support that comes with it.
Conclusion: A Delicate Balancing Act
Germany finds itself at a crossroads. The shifting dynamics of US-European relations, coupled with growing public support for nuclear armament, have forced the country to confront difficult questions about its security. While closer cooperation with France and the UK offers a potential path forward, it is no substitute for the robust defense framework provided by NATO and the US.
As Germany navigates this complex landscape, one thing is clear: The debate over nuclear weapons is far from over. Whether through strengthened alliances, enhanced deterrence strategies, or renewed commitments to multilateralism, Germany must find a way to safeguard its security in an increasingly uncertain world.
For now, the seeds of doubt sown by Trump’s presidency have already taken root, challenging Europe to rethink its reliance on the US and chart a new course for its defense. The question remains: Can Europe stand united in the face of these challenges, or will the cracks in its security framework continue to widen? Only time will tell.
